Center Cemetery North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

701
FXUS61 KRNK 141042
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
642 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure should allow for a dry remainder of the
week. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler
temperatures behind it. The next chance for rain looks to be
Sunday with a stronger front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Drier airmass setting in with some continued gusty winds
today.
As the upper trough and attendant coastal sfc low advects
eastward away from the mid-Atlantic, a dry ridge of high
pressure will set in under NW flow aloft today. Some lingering
morning stratocu should scatter out under the subsidence
allowing for a mostly sunny day and generally above normal
afternoon high temps with many locations reaching into the 70s.
Winds should again be gusty near 15-20 mph during the daytime
with an enhanced gradient.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) A dry cold front Wednesday will allow for cooler temps and
frost likely Friday morning in parts of the mountains.
An impulse pushing southward along the NW upper flow becomes
moisture starved as it approaches and will allow for a dry cold
front passing through on Wednesday. This will bring the next
round of below normal temps. While Thursday morning may be a tad
too warm and some light NW/N winds, temps Friday morning
generally along and west of the Blue Ridge look to be supportive
of frost development in addition to calm winds. An advisory may
be warranted in future updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Stronger frontal system looks to bring the next chance of
rain by Sunday.
The persistent ridge of high pressure is progged to finally
break down with an amplifying longwave trough tracking eastward
across the CONUS. An elongated sfc front and enhanced moisture
axis should approach the area by Sunday. While there are plenty
of strong dynamics and shear with this feature, instability
struggles to advect northward into the area and therefore rain
showers are only expected. By early next week, guidance has
discrepancies on whether we transition back to NW flow behind
the front or if the upper energy breaks away from the north and
slings the low pressure southward into the area. The latter
solution would allow for some increased rain chances but for
now will maintain a dry forecast with noted uncertainty.
Max temps will be quite warm and pleasant Saturday with many
locations reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, then Sunday will be
a bit cooler (mainly mid 60s to mid 70s) with the
aforementioned front and rain chances. A chilly morning looks to
be in store for Monday behind the front as lows dip down to the
upper 30s to low 40s for much of the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions expected through period. Just some lingering stratocu
near 4-6 kft this morning. Should be mostly clear today into
tonight under dry high pressure (perhaps a FEW cu or cirrus at
times). Winds generally increase out of the north today around
8-10 kts and low end gusts possible, then gradually decrease
this evening into tonight. Could have some morning FG/BR
Wednesday morning for LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
For the remainder of the week, VFR conditions are expected
across the area, outside of patchy morning fog in the river
valleys. Gusty winds continue through the middle of the week,
mainly north to northwesterly through Friday. Next chance of
rain arrives Sunday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AB/AS

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion