Centuck, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

655
FXUS61 KOKX 211722
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles north today and remains nearby through Monday.
A warm front lifts to the north Monday night. A cold front pushes
through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure may impact the
region late in the week into early next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build down across New England today.
A good amount of sunshine is expected with just some mid and
upper level clouds from time to time working up from the S and
SW. With a noticeably cooler air mass in place, it will be a
few degrees below normal with maximum temps this afternoon
mainly on either side of 70, with more lower half of the 70s
across the NYC metro. Overall a very comfortable day with dew
point readings in the upper 40s and lower 50s. For tonight skies
should average out to be mostly clear to partly cloudy, with
mainly upper level clouds from time to time. A cool early autumn
type of night with minimum temperatures down into the middle
and upper 40s in the coolest locations across interior rural
locations, otherwise mainly 50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During Monday the high pressure ridge over the area inches east
through the day and into Monday night. Another nice day with a fair
amount of sunshine with just the mid and upper level clouds from
time to time as indicated by forecast soundings. Temperatures will
be 4 to 5 degrees warmer with air mass modification taking place as
a weak return flow ensues mainly out of the south late in the day.
With high pressure getting further east and offshore Monday night
dew points begin to inch up some, therefore it won`t be as cool as
previous nights. Lows should mainly be in the upper 50s to middle
60s.
Enough ridging should hold early on Tuesday to preclude any rain,
but then is expected to break down further later in the day and into
the evening. Some shortwave energy breaks through later in the day
and evening bringing the chance of showers. Much of the day should
remain dry as indicated by some of the short range higher resolution
guidance, but with shower chances increasing in the afternoon and
evening from west to east. It will be warmer and more humid with
temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s with dew point readings
back into the 60s, thus more of a summery feel on Tuesday on a S to
SW flow. As a cold front approaches there will be some extra lift
and instability which may lead to a few thunderstorms across the
area into Tuesday evening. With the boundary getting through the
area into the late night and early Wednesday morning look for any
instability to wane with perhaps just a few lingering showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was closely followed through the period.
Key Points:
* Appearing unsettled at times mid to late week as frontal boundary
  moves through Wednesday, before stalling over the Mid Atlantic
  into the weekend.
* Rain chances persist through much of the period as weakening area
  of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley drifts east along the
  stalled boundary. Timing and coverage of rainfall remains highly
  uncertain.
* Temperatures expected to largely remain near normal for late
  September, afternoon highs ranging from upper 60s to mid 70s,
  though dependent on extent of cloud cover and precipitation from
  the slow moving system to the south and west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the New England coast will remain in control
through Monday.
VFR. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible across eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut terminals late tonight/early Monday
morning, but confidence is too low to include in TAF at this
time.
Winds will continue becoming ESE-SE this afternoon around 8-12
kt, strongest at coastal terminals. An occasional gust 15-18 kt
is possible this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening,
becoming light and variable overnight and early Monday morning.
Winds become SSE-S on Monday, increasing to 9-12 kt in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift to the E-SE at KLGA may be off by 1-2 hours this
afternoon.
Low chance for MVFR ceilings late tonight and early Monday
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday PM: VFR through early evening, then MVFR or lower
ceilings possible late at night.
Tuesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Showers and MVFR may continue at
night.
Wednesday-Friday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers each day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail on the coastal waters through
tonight. Ocean seas get closer to 4 ft late Monday and Monday night
as marginal small craft conditions become increasingly likely into
Tuesday with 5 ft seas possible ahead of a cold front a southerly
flow. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected on Wednesday
as seas should average closer to 4 ft as the winds shift to the NW
behind the cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time throughout the
forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening,
followed by a high risk developing by the afternoon on Monday
with a longer period SE swell developing.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion