Chaparral, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

650
FXUS64 KEPZ 211652
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1052 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1032 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Low storm chances today with minimal weather impacts.
- Minor impacts due to isolated showers and thunderstorms over
   mountain areas Monday and Tuesday. Above normal high
   temperatures persist until a cold front arrives Wednesday.
- More widespread precipitation enters the forecast Wednesday
   through next weekend, enhancing the risk for flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A dry and warm evening is on the docket for tonight, with minimum
temperatures being 5F to 12F above seasonal averages. Stubborn high
pressure hovering across central MX will elongate into far southern
TX Monday, allowing for a slug of moisture snaking up the Sonoran
and Chihuahuan deserts to combine with moisture being pushed in
from a Pacific low near SoCal. This will help for PWATs to
increase above average, but for most of the area, weak forcing
will hinder convective development. The best chances for
thunderstorms will favor the western high terrain thanks to their
proximity to a weak shortwave drifting across central NM.
A crooked omega block takes shape Tuesday, with high pressure
tilted toward AZ while the upper low continues to flirt with
SoCal and another upper low tours the Rockie Mts. This sets the
stage for a low confidence forecast moving into midweek as models
struggle to resolve the blocking feature. While their consistency
between each other is decent, their skill with such patterns is
suboptimal. Moisture continues to work its way into the Borderland
on Tuesday, with isolated storms favoring the high terrain. The
pattern expands on Wednesday, allowing the ridge of high pressure
to become more upright, while the high`s center elongates into
the Pacific. This brings a more favorable amount of moisture into
southern NM and far west TX, at least accprdomg tp the GFS. The
ECMWF is less enthused, as are its counterparts. As such, did
maintain slight chance to chance PoPs generally favoring the high
terrain. By Thursday, the Pacific low commits to trekking inland,
the journey of which would force moisture along its eastern
periphery. Such a track would bode will for the Borderland as this
moisture would travel right across our area in its pursuit of the
Great Basin.
At this point, considerable uncertainty enters the arena as the
evolution of this upper low will have considerable influence on
hazards across the area later in the week. Current guidance suggests
that the low will barrel into the Desert Southwest and the
Borderland would receive a direct hit, resulting in widespread
precipitation. This forecaster is not particularly optimistic at
the model skill regarding the resolution of this feature.
Maintained NBM PoPs during this timeframe but do believe it`ll
take getting past the blocking patter for models to truly have a
handle on what`s to come late next week. Stay tuned...
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Typical aftn
breezes will favor nwly to wly persuasions with gusts generally
under 20 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1032 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
With continued influx of moisture, fire weather conditions remain
relatively unremarkable. An upper level blocking pattern will
bring uncertainty to the precipitation forecast throughout the
week. Storms are likely to favor western zones Monday through
Wednesday before more widespread precipitation enters the
forecast. An enhanced risk of burn scar flash flooding will return
for all recent burn scars by midweek. Minimum RH will stay well
above critical thresholds in the presence of generally light
winds, outside of thunderstorm outflows. Ventilation will trend
poor to fair most areas given the weak flow aloft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  71  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            88  62  91  63 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               90  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  20
Alamogordo               90  64  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               67  48  69  49 /   0   0  10  20
Truth or Consequences    89  64  89  62 /   0  10  30  20
Silver City              83  59  83  58 /  10  10  30  20
Deming                   93  64  93  64 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                88  64  88  64 /  10  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       92  70  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City                92  61  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  68  96  69 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               84  64  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   92  66  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             90  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           90  68  92  67 /   0   0  10  20
Jornada Range            89  64  91  63 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                    92  64  94  63 /   0  10  20  20
Columbus                 92  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                88  62  91  62 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  79  54  81  55 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                79  53  81  53 /   0   0  20  20
Timberon                 77  53  79  53 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  82  53  82  51 /  10  10  50  20
Hillsboro                89  61  90  59 /  10  10  30  20
Spaceport                88  61  90  61 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts             84  53  84  52 /  10  10  40  20
Hurley                   86  59  86  59 /  10  10  20  10
Cliff                    89  61  89  60 /  10  10  30  10
Mule Creek               85  59  84  57 /  10  20  40  10
Faywood                  86  61  86  60 /  10  10  20  20
Animas                   90  64  89  65 /  20  30  20  10
Hachita                  89  63  89  63 /  10  20  10  10
Antelope Wells           90  63  89  64 /  20  30  20  10
Cloverdale               85  61  84  62 /  30  40  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion