Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

020
FXUS62 KRAH 081816
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest
into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work
week. Weak disturbances will travel northeast near and along a
lingering frontal zone near the coast on Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
* Fall-like weather tonight.
* Monitoring a disturbance that could bring some unannounced clouds
  and sprinkles to the Roanoke Rapids area early this evening.
* Chilly tonight with lows 4 to 11 degrees below average, ranging
  from near 50 in the temps near Roxboro to the upper 50s in
  Fayetteville.
Surface high pressure extends into the region with cool northeast
flow controlling much of the weather. There is a notable change in
airmass across the area with dew points now in the lower 40s in the
Triad (42 at KINT and 44 at KGSO at 18Z) and PW values around a half
inch to dew points in the lower to mid 50s in the Coastal Plain and
PW values near an inch. Satellite imagery shows a disturbance moving
southwest across the Chesapeake Bay with enhanced cumulus clouds and
a few echoes on radar. Selected CAMs over the past day or two have
highlighted the potential for a shower or a few sprinkles to move
southwest into the northern Coastal Plain including Roanoke Rapids
and Rocky Mount late this afternoon and evening. Given the dry air
in place and weak support, did not include any PoPs in the forecast
but wouldn`t be surprised to see some weak radar returns, virga and
interesting clouds in the northern coastal Plain a little before
sunset.
Clear skies across most of central NC will give way to a few high
clouds overnight along with an increase in strato cumulus clouds
from the east which will spread into the Coastal Plain and eastern
Sandhills. Gusty northeast winds will relax a bit this evening with
fewer gusts although winds may pick up a bit across the Coastal
Plain overnight. Temperatures will drop to 4 to 11 degrees below
average and range near 50 along the VA border, 50 to 55 in the Triad
and Triangle and the upper 50s across the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain. A few colder spots like Henderson and Roxboro could
drop to 48 or 49! -Blaes
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...
Generally stuck in swly flow aloft on Tuesday. However, any
anomalous moisture should be shunted to our east along the stalled
sfc boundary.  A sfc low will move along the stalled boundary
Tuesday into Wednesday but remain offshore.  Further north, a strong
sfc high over New England will extend into central NC maintaining
cool nely low-level flow with highs . As the low moves further
north, expect increasing cloudiness but we should mostly remain dry
over central NC.  A few CAMs suggest the potential for isolated
sprinkles in the Coastal Plain late Tuesday afternoon/early evening,
but not expecting more than Trace to a few hundreds if any QPF at
all.
Overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...
Dry and generally cooler weather expected through the extended
period. The aforementioned coastal front should remain to our east
as the strong high pressure system over New England maintains nely
low-level flow over central NC basically through the weekend.
Long-wave troughing will persist across the eastern US through this
period. A few vorticity waves will transit the southeast US which
should trigger convection along the offshore front. However, rain
chances over our area appear quite limited with LREF probabilities
for measurable rainfall maxing out at ~10% each afternoon fixed over
areas east of I-95.  Otherwise, expect near to below normal highs
through the period generally peaking each afternoon in the upper 70s
(perhaps a bit warmer next weekend in the lower 80s).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Monday...
High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period
although some 5-6kft SCT-BKN clouds will develop across the Coastal
Plain near KIXA and KRWI late this afternoon and then spread and
develop near KFAY overnight. While clouds may thin a bit
overnight, another round of BKN clouds will develop late
Tuesday morning and afternoon at 3-5kft across eastern locations
during including KRWI, KGSB, KIXA. Gusty north to northeast
winds at 10 to 12kts with gusts of 16-24 kts this afternoon will
relax a bit tonight in most location with north winds at 6 to
10kts overnight, strongest at KRWI and KFAY. Gusty north to
northeast winds will redevelop on Tuesday at around 10 to 12 kts
with gusts of 16 to 22kts.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail during much of the work week
although disturbances moving northeast near a stalled front along
the coast will support a risk of MVFR CIGS at eastern locations,
including KRWI and KFAY for late Tuesday through early Thursday.
-Blaes
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Blaes

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion