Chapman Cemetery, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS64 KLIX 051835
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
135 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Winds and seas will remain hazardous today and then gradually
   subside.
- Minor coastal flooding along east facing shores of southeast
   LA, including portions of the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS
   county is expected through today`s high tide cycle.
- Drier conditions return by the middle of the week.
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A low pressure system that has been producing gusty east winds,
minor coastal flooding on east facing shores, and periods of light
to moderate rainfall will gradually push inland across western
Louisiana tonight. As the low moves inland it will weaken and
eventually dissipate during the day tomorrow. This will allow east
winds to decrease tonight into tomorrow, and the threat of
additional coastal flooding will come to an end. However,
lingering low to mid level moisture will combine with a moderately
unstable airmass associated with warmer daytime highs tomorrow to
support additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development
over the area. Pop of 30 to 40 percent is in the forecast to
reflect this convective risk. Speaking of the temperatures, highs
will warm into the mid 80s, or to more normal levels for early
October, as skies turn sunnier. Tomorrow night will see lows
staying a bit warmer than average in the low to mid 70s due to
lingering low level moisture, but any convection should quickly
dissipate after sunset due to the loss of instability driving
convective updraft formation.
Tuesday will see a continued drying trend as an increasingly
stronger mid to upper level high pressure system becomes the
dominant feature over the Gulf South. PWATS will fall closer to
the median for this of year as temperatures warm and dry aloft,
and the development of a mid- level temperature inversion will
help to tamp down deeper convective updraft development. However,
enough low level instability will be in place as temperatures warm
into the upper 80s to pop off some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms by late Tuesday afternoon. PoP of around 30 percent
is in place for the entire area on Tuesday afternoon to reflect
this convective risk. Once again, any convection will be highly
diurnal with dry conditions forecast by the evening hours. As the
atmosphere slowly dries, temperatures will also be able to cool a
bit more Tuesday night with lows falling into the upper 60s over
inland areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
By Wednesday, the broad mid to upper level high over the region on
Tuesday will start to shift west toward Texas in response to a
northern stream trough axis and related front sliding southward
across the Lower Mississippi valley. Winds will turn more
northerly throughout the day, and an an even drier airmass will
start to advect into the region. PWATS will fall below the median
and convective development will be a struggle. However, very warm
temperatures of near 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon will be
sufficient to spark off a few showers and thunderstorms over the
area. These very hit or miss storms will not be strong, but could
produce some gusty winds as they roll through. Once again, any
convective activity will quickly dissipate in the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating.
The northern stream trough will continue to deepen from Thursday
into Saturday, and all of the guidance has a highly amplified
pattern in place across the CONUS by Saturday. Across the Gulf
South, deep layer northerly flow will remain in place. This
northerly flow regime will continue to advect a very dry airmass
into the region with PWATS falling well below average. Some weak
cold air advection is also expected behind a reinforcing backdoor
cold front that will slide through on Thursday. This slightly
colder airmass will allow highs to fall back to more normal levels
in the mid 80s on Friday and Saturday. However, the bigger story
is that overnight lows will feel like Fall with readings dipping
into the upper 50s and lower 60s over inland areas on Friday and
Saturday night. Closer to the coast and south of the lake, lows
will fall into the mid to upper 60s. The upcoming weekend looks
fantastic for any outdoor activities.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A low pressure system moving toward western Louisiana will
continue to bring periods of light rain and MVFR visibilities and
ceilings to all of the terminals through the evening hours. Later
tonight, conditions look favorable for some stratus lowering to
occur at MCB, HDC, and BTR, and prevailing IFR ceilings between
500 and 900 feet are in the forecast between 09z and 14z. The
ceilings should gradually lift at these terminals after 14z.
Periods of off an on showers and thunderstorms producing continued
MVFR conditions will be an issue through the end of the forecast
period as the low tracks inland and dissipates. This risk is
reflected by PROB30 wording tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Conditions will start to gradually improve across the waters
tonight into tomorrow as the low that has been impacting the area
the past few days begins to move inland over western Louisiana and
weaken. A decreasing pressure gradient over the waters as this low
weakens will allow winds to fall from advisory levels this
afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots by tomorrow morning. Seas will
also gradually decrease in response to these lighter winds with
seas of 2 to 4 feet expected by tomorrow. These lighter winds and
calmer seas will persist into Tuesday, but another low moving
through the Gulf from Wednesday through Friday will once again
tighten the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf leading to
higher winds and seas to close out the week. Another round of
small craft advisories has a high probability of being needed by
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  70  89 /  50  40  30  30
BTR  72  87  72  89 /  40  40  20  30
ASD  71  86  70  87 /  50  40  20  30
MSY  75  86  75  86 /  50  40  20  30
GPT  73  83  72  84 /  60  40  20  30
PQL  72  83  70  86 /  60  40  20  30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ069-
     070-076-078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-555-557-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion