Chazy, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS61 KBTV 051057
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather prevails today, with gusty winds developing again in
the afternoon. Another round of widespread rainfall moves through
tomorrow as an area of low pressure develops on a cold front. After
the rain moves out, cooler and drier conditions return for the end
of the weekend and the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Friday...The line of showers continues to slowly
exit to the east. It should mostly be out of Vermont within the next
few hours and dry conditions will prevail for much of the day. Skies
have begun to clear in the ST. Lawrence Valley and the clearing will
slowly progress eastward, but it will likely not reach much of
Vermont before the night is over. Where clearing occurs, patchy fog
is quickly developing and this trend will continue. Fog will be
possible in much of northern New York this morning. This clearing has
also allowed temperatures to drop quickly, and Ogdensburg currently
holds the prize of the coldest ASOS/AWOS in the forecast area at 48
degrees. The nearest is MSS at 52, but SLK will likely beat it once
it clears out. A few rain showers will be possible tonight due to a
stalled boundary being over the area, but most places should be dry
due to weak forcing. An area of low pressure develops along this
front and moves through the area tomorrow. Right now, it looks like
most of the region should be on the cold sector and it will only see
stratiform precipitation. However, it may track just far enough
north that southeastern Vermont stays in the warm sector. Therefore,
convection is possible on the backside of the low as it pushes a
cold front through, and there is enough instability that isolated
strong to severe storms will be possible there, though the greatest
threat is likely farther south and east. This low will bring another
area of widespread precipitation, and GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble
probabilities of seeing more than a half inch are around 50 percent
for much of the region outside the St. Lawrence Valley.
Probabilities of an inch are much less, only around 20 percent in
the highest area, due to the relatively fast storm motion and
stratiform elements for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Friday...Large scale troughing moves in for Saturday
night and Sunday, but despite this, conditions should be mostly dry
and some sunshine will be possible. Cooling temperatures aloft and
southwesterly flow will could cause a few lake effect showers to
reach far southern St. Lawrence County, but meaningful totals are
not expected. Freezing levels should stay a couple thousand feet
above summit levels, so any showers there will be rain, but with
temperatures in the 40s and some winds, wind chills will be in the
30s. Temperatures elsewhere will be seasonably cool, with highs
generally in the 60s to around 70 on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Friday...The long term period will be fairly
pleasant as high pressure settles at the surface. We`ll remain
squeezed between an upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes,
while the cold front that brings us showers over the weekend will
remain positioned to our south, near the New England border. The
result will be rain on either side of us for a few days, with much
of northern New York and Vermont to remain dry. We can`t totally
rule out a stray shower or two during the period however, depending
on whether we can get any upper disturbance pushing through the
southwest flow aloft. After a relatively cool start (Monday`s highs
will be in the 60s in most spots, and frost may be possible Monday
night in the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom. There should be a warming trend thereafter however, with
highs back into the 70s areawide by Wednesday. A possible cold
frontal passage on Thursday could lower temperatures back below
normal for late week, but have stayed close to the NBM due to
uncertainty in timing of any fronts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Other than some brief localized IFR
conditions early in TAF period due to dense fog, MVFR/VFR are
expected to prevail at all terminals. Fog will lift by 13z, but
some MVFR ceilings will linger into the afternoon hours,
particularly at KRUT and KEFK. Otherwise, SCT ceilings AOA 3500
ft anticipated through the remainder of the period. Light winds
early this morning in pick up out of the south/southwest by 15z,
becoming gusty to 15-20 kt during the daylight hours. Some brief
wind shear is possible this evening and overnight as winds
decouple as a low level jet crosses the area. Most likely
terminals for LLWS will be KEFK/KMSS after 02z Sun.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Relatively calm conditions in the early morning will quickly change
by the afternoon as strong southerly winds develop again. Sustained
winds should reach the 15-25 KT range, with gusts up to around 30
KTs. These strong winds will continue into the evening before
quickly decreasing overnight. They should be light and variable in
most areas by Saturday morning, though a weak southerly or westerly
component is possible. Waves will increase again this afternoon,
with maximum heights between 1.5-2.5 feet expected on the Broad Lake
and 0.5-1.5 feet elsewhere.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion