Chester Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS65 KTFX 080527
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1127 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be dry and mild through Friday.
- Saturday through early next week it will cool down with
   precipitation across the area.
- On Saturday it will be windy across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 849 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025/
With high pressure overhead, no impactful weather is present to
justify an update this evening. Ludwig
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 849 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
This afternoon through Wednesday there will be an upper-level ridge
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
bring warm (above seasonal averages) and dry weather to the area
this afternoon through Wednesday. On Thursday the upper-level ridge
remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
However, there is a quick moving upper-level shortwave that will
dive south from Canada and bring cooler air to North-central
Montana on Thursday. On Thursday it will remain dry with above
seasonal averages for temperatures in Central and Southwestern
Montana and near seasonal averages for temperatures in North-
central Montana. On Friday the upper-level ridge remains over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with an upper-
level trough approaching Montana. Due to the upper-level trough
approaching Montana there will be warm air advection from
southerly flow aloft which will bring well-above seasonal average
temperatures and dry weather to North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana on Friday.
Saturday through Monday the upper-level trough moves over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to a surface cold
front combined with the upper-level trough temperatures will cool
down Saturday through Monday with widespread precipitation. On
Saturday due to a strong surface pressure gradient, surface cold
front, and strong upper-level flow it will be windy. -IG
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
There is high confidence in the overall weather pattern through
Friday with deterministic and ensemble guidance all in good
agreement with the upper-level weather pattern. Saturday through
Monday there is high confidence in deterministic and ensemble guidance
that there will be an upper-level trough. However, there is low
confidence in the positioning and strength of the upper-level
trough. This leads to high uncertainty in the forecast Saturday
through Monday.
On Saturday there is  a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or
greater across most locations of North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana excluding the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent
plains. On Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 30 -
60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. On Saturday along
the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front there is a 20 - 50%
chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. -IG
&&
.AVIATION...
08/06Z TAF Period
The upper level ridge in place will keep benign weather through
the TAF period. Wednesday afternoon will see a slight uptick in
south/southwest winds in Southwest MT. -Wilson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  73  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  69  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  37  70  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  32  70  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  22  59  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  31  66  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  38  73  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  73  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion