Chicot County Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS64 KJAN 111632 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1132 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail
   through this weekend. No hazardous weather impacts are
   anticipated over the next week.
- Limited fire danger conditions are expected to continue in
   portions of East Mississippi and Southeast Mississippi through
   this weekend.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Rest of today...
Quiet afternoon is on tap. The Gulf Coast region remains trapped
between upper level ridging to the west and cutoff low to the
east, keeping northerly dry flow and mean surface high pressure
ridge across the region. Upper moisture and relative humidities
aloft remain low, keeping precipitable water (PWs) below an inch,
so a mostly cloud free and seasonably warm afternoon is expected
(81-86F). Mixing should be efficient, so ongoing fire danger
graphic remains valid for this weekend. No major changes were
needed to the forecast, just minor refinement based on faster
warmup and quicker mixing ongoing. Based upon trends in the last
24 hours, leaned a touch warmer for highs today. Updates will be
out shortly. /DC/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Today through Sunday Night...
Quiet and dry weather conditions will continue today across our CWA
thanks to high pressure ridging and light northerly flow under
mostly clear skies. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low/mid
80s areawide. Quiet conditions will continue later tonight with
nighttime temperatures dipping into the upper 40s/low 50s for areas
along and east of I-55. Areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows
dipping into the mid 50s. Dry conditions will persist looking ahead
into Sunday with daytime highs peaking into the low/mid 80s.
Similar conditions are occur Sunday night under clear skies with
lows in the low/mid 50s.
Regarding the concerns for fire wx, near term guidance is still
showing RHs dropping to around 35-40% across much of our forecast
area today and Sunday with slightly lower RHs (around 30%) across
portions of east and southeast MS. These low RHs could cause some
low-end fire weather concerns. Because of this, we went ahead and
introduced a "Limited" risk for fire weather concerns through this
weekend mainly for areas east of I-55. RHs values will continue
to be monitored as we get through the weekend.
Monday through Friday...
Not much to talk about in the extended period. Heading into the new
work week, the upper ridge axis will shift slightly
eastward towards the ArkLaMiss Region. This will help maintain
the sfc high pressure system across the Deep South. Because of
this, dry conditions will continue across our CWA. Temperatures
will begin to trend upward looking ahead into the mid week as
global guidance continues to show shows surface trajectories
taking on a more southerly component. Dry and quiet conditions
will continue heading into Friday. /CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR conditions and a light northerly wind will prevail through the
forecast period. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated, however
some patchy fog will be possible over the next several hours
possibly impacting sites. /KP/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      81  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   84  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       83  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    84  57  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     83  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
DC/CR/KP

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion