Chilhowee, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

354
FXUS63 KEAX 042354
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain Showers and Isolated Storms Friday
- Cooler Temperatures Friday
- Temperatures in the 80s Return Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Deep closed-low system currently sits between the Great Lakes and
Hudson Bay Region, with strong jet streak present from the Northern
Rockies into the upper Midwest. At the surface, a compact low is
present over the eastern Dakota`s, while there are surface
anticyclones located over western Canada and another across the
lower Missouri River Valley. The latter anticyclone has kept weather
conditions clear and dry today across the forecast area, with upper-
level northwesterly flow allowing some smoke to to move in. Mild
weather conditions will continue through the remainder of the
evening.
Overnight into early Friday morning, concentrated mid-level vort max
on the west side of the deep closed-low system moves southward into
the Central CONUS, while surface anticyclone in western Canada moves
across the Rockies and into portions of the High Plains. This will
push a cold front southward toward the Missouri River Valley.
Surface convergence along the cold front increases across Northern
Missouri, while mid-level forcing throughout much of eastern Kansas
and Missouri increases as a stronger H5 height gradient sets up. Q-
vector convergence also steadily increases. There is some dry air to
contend with that may delay the onset on rain showers, but
eventually should see rain activity fill in especially for areas
south of U.S. Hwy. 36 by Friday early morning. CAM runs have been
highlighting two areas, one directly along the cold front, and
another weaker WAA advection wing from the Ozarks to areas south of
Interstate 70. While there will be multiple features for forcing,
moisture will be the limiting factor, with dewpoints in the lower to
mid 50s across most of the area. Local probability matched mean QPF
from the HREF paints a few pockets of rainfall totals around 0.75
inches, with areas between Interstate 70 and the Ozarks Region
generally in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range. Instability as this cold
front pushes through will be fairly limited, the HRRR keeps just a
narrow corridor of MUCAPE between 250-500 J/kg immediately along the
warm front, and this roughly lies within the mean MUCAPE values
projected by the 12z HREF run this morning. A few isolated
thunderstorms may develop with shower activity, but will not be a
favorable severe environment as the better shear does not arrive
until the front pushes through. By late Friday evening, mid-level
vort maxima and area of enhanced Q-vector convergence shifts south
and southeastward, as well as pushing the front out. Weak ridge axis
over The Rockies will help reinforce surface anticyclone coming out
of the Northern Rockies with dAVA, and appears precipitation drag
may result in a mesoscale high developing across the Central Plains
into the lower Missouri River Valley.
For the remainder of the weekend, deep closed-low system will
slightly shift eastward, while ridge builds over the Intermountain
West. This shift should be enough to allow subtle H5 height rises
through the weekend promoting a subsidence regime across much of the
Central CONUS that will keep conditions dry. This will setup weak
WAA across the Plains that will help temperatures Saturday and
Sunday return back to the mid and perhaps upper 70s across the area.
For the start of next week, stronger PV anomaly over the Pacific
promotes troughing over the western CONUS which will amplified H5
ridge from the Rockies into the Central CONUS, providing a stronger
WAA push that should help temperatures climb back toward the 80s for
most of the area. Expecting a few disturbances to emanate from the
PV anomaly and ride over the ridge axis brining rainfall potential
next week, and ensemble suites paint some low end probabilities next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
HZ from smoke lingers through the evening. SCT to BKN CIGs due
to smoke haze may lower as temperatures cool; however, no CIG
category changes are anticipated. VIS may dip intermittently
into MVFR. A cold front passes through the region during the
overnight with SHRA and isolated TSRA developing near sunrise.
Higher TSRA chances remain south of the terminals. Sct RA
lingers through much of the remainder of the period. Post
frontal northerly winds become gusty mid morning continuing
through sunset Friday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion