Chubb Lake, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS64 KHGX 021741
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry conditions continue today, please continue to use caution
  when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks
  and start a fire.
- Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture
  deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms along the coast.
- Small craft will likely need to exercise caution Friday into the
  weekend due to increased winds and seas. Beachgoers should also
  be aware that there will likely be an increased risk of rip
  currents this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The stretch of dry weather continued today with mostly clear skies
and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. There will
be a gradual change in the weather starting tomorrow as a long
easterly fetch develops over the northern Gulf helping to bring
some moisture back into SE Texas. A combination of the increased
moisture and a broad upper-level low over the Mississippi RV will
bring a slight increase in the chance of showers and storms on
Friday and into the weekend. Only areas south of I-10 will have a
chance of the shower and thunderstorm activity as it will mostly
be driven by the afternoon seabreeze. Cannot out rule an isolated
shower north of I-10, but activity will be minimal. For Monday
through at least midweek, there will be slightly better chances
for isolated afternoon activity north of I-10, but still only a
slight chance. While there will be higher moisture across the area
that daytime heating may be able to tap into to develop some
isolated activity, there will be a building upper level ridge of
high pressure developing over the region. This high pressure will
increase subsidence over the area, thus limiting precipitation
chances. Thus, limiting PoPs next week to 15-25 percent during the
afternoon hours.
Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Temperatures may increase another degree or two by Wednesday of
next week as that high pressure builds over the region.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
With a couple exceptions (one quite notable), this is a VFR
forecast with main challenge being winds this morning being
Light/VRB landbreeze, with winds gradually becoming easterly 5-10
kts for the afternoon - southeasterly right on the coast with the
seabreeze, then light/VRB again tonight.
Foggy spots SGR and *especially* LBX doing their thing right now,
with LBX all the way down to 1/4SM. Expecting things to stay
roughly as is or degrade slightly through sunrise, then improve
rapidly as the sun rises and temps increase. Do not have a return
of BR/FG in their TAFs tonight for now due to uncertainty, but is
certainly on the table.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Light winds and low seas continue through tonight, but increasing
easterly winds are expected to develop Friday through the weekend.
The easterly winds are expected to rise to 15-20kt with gusts to
25kts as early late Friday morning/early afternoon with these
wind speeds continuing through Sunday morning. These higher winds
will lead to increasing wave heights as well with seas climbing to
around 4-6ft by Friday evening and persist through Sunday.
Isolated higher seas of 7-8ft cannot be ruled out on Saturday in
the offshore waters beyond 20nm. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to develop in the coastal waters on
Friday with chances continuing through at least the start of next
week.
The persistent moderate onshore flow will likely lead to an
increase in strong rip currents along area beaches this weekend,
and lead to higher than normal high tides (around 3-3.5ft above
MLLW during times of high tide).
Fowler
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and
Wharton counties.
Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to
29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE
Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with
isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd
percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though
once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any
firefighting/containment efforts.
Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the
dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should
exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have
contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals
should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks,
(i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces.
Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved
rain chances over the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  90  65  90 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  86  77  85 /  10  30  20  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion