Clairemont Senior High School California Weather Forecast Discussion

318
FXUS66 KSGX 150343
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
843 PM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will continue to impact Southern California
through this evening with heavy rain and gusty winds. Clearing
tonight leading into quiet weather and gradual warming through the
weekend. Another low pressure system from the north will bring
cooling early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Update: Most of the moderate to heave rainfall has made its way
through San Diego County now, with only some remaining showers over
the southeastern corner. There are also some isolated showers overs
the water, which will make their way onshore throughout the evening,
and then all shower activity should be coming to an end around
midnight, or shortly thereafter. Additional amounts expected will
likely only amount to anywhere from 0.10-0.25 inches for most
locations in southeastern portion of San Diego County, especially
for the foothills, where locally higher amounts will be possible.
Skies will continue to clear in the morning with high pressure
beginning to build in behind the exiting trough. This will lead to
mostly sunny skies across the region tomorrow, although temperatures
will still be on the cooler side, with some breezy conditions during
the afternoon hours. The marine layer is going to struggle to fill
back in tomorrow night and through the rest of the week, given that
there will be weak offshore winds following the exiting trough.
Overall the models have bee relatively consistent with a warming and
drying trend going into the upcoming weekend, followed by a return
of cooler temperatures, and possibly a chance of showers during the
early part of next week.
(Previous discussion submitted at 146 PM):
This afternoon, a convective precipitation band is pushing through
the coastal basin along the cold front attached to the low
pressure system to the north. This will continue to bring heavy
rain and gusty winds to San Diego County and eastern mountains
through this evening. Rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5" per hour remain
possible in these areas presenting a minor flood risk for the next
few hours. A strong LLJ may allow for isolated strong wind gusts
in the stronger convection currently coming onshore in San Diego
County.
Scattered post-frontal showers lingering this evening across the
coastal basin, but any additional rainfall should remain light
with minimal impacts. Clearing expected from west to east across
the area tonight as the low pressure system exits the region.
Much more benign weather will follow as a weak ridge builds into
the southwestern US leading to dry conditions and gradual warming
through the weekend. A surface high will move over intermountain
west by Wednesday and should create enough of an offshore pressure
gradient to prevent marine layer cloud development for a few
days.
By early next week another upper level trough will swing across
the western US. This should bring temperatures back to below
average, but impacts beyond that are uncertain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
150300Z...ISO-SCT -SHRA possible through about 12Z. Intermittent
bases 1500-2500 ft MSL tonight, especially under -SHRA, below a 3000-
6000 ft deck which will gradually scatter out tonight and Wed
morning. Mostly clear after 17Z, with 10% chance or less of low
cloud development Wed evening.
Gusts 25-35 kts in the mountains and desert slopes until 06Z. MOD
UDDFS and local LLWS or rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty
KPSP.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected this evening through
Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Surf will be 3 to 5 feet, with occasional sets to 6 feet through
tonight. This will produce a high rip current risk.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Stewey
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion