Clayhatchee, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

317
FXUS62 KTAE 050519
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
119 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
A weak shortwave is moving through the area, which may spark a few
isolated showers and storms this afternoon across southeast
Alabama. Additionally, a shower/storm or two would be possible
along the sea breeze near and south of I-10. These will fade after
sunset rather quickly with a quiet night anticipated. Some patchy
fog is possible with a bit more moisture over the Panhandle. Lows
tonight will be near 70. The main parent trough begins lifting
tomorrow, which will allow temperatures to heat up more. Highs
will likely reach the mid-90s in most areas. Only a couple
isolated showers and storms will develop along the coastal
seabreeze, but rain chances are only 20%.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Another weak shortwave moves through Saturday, which may help
bump rain chances up slightly, but still only on the order of
20-30%. Otherwise, the heat continues with highs in the low to mid
90s and heat index values of 100-105. Lows will be in the lower
70s.
A cold front moves through Sunday as the parent trough over the
Great Lakes swings eastward. This will bring in a few showers and
storms, but overall chances are still less than 30%. The front
stalls to our south over the Florida Peninsula next week as the
trough lifts out. Rain chances will increase with the front nearby
up to 30-50% over the Florida counties, but some drier air will
filter in across the Alabama and Georgia counties. Rainfall totals
are generally going to be less than an inch with the heavier
totals to our south.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky. An area of low pressure will
develop off the northeast FL coast early next week with high
pressure over the central/northern Appalachians. This will promote
northeasterly flow down the spine of the Appalachians into our
area. This pattern promotes a "wedge" or cold air damming. At this
juncture, the global and blended guidance usually doesn`t handle
this pattern very well. Because of this, have nudged highs down
closer to the 25th percentile, resulting in mid-80s across the
area. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Winds will be light to gentle out of the east through this
weekend. As a cold front moves through the waters Sunday and
Monday, winds will become more northerly to northeasterly and
increase. Cautionary to advisory level winds will be possible
beginning Sunday night and lasting into mid week as the pressure
gradient tightens between a low off northeast Florida and a high
over the Appalachians. Seas will also respond and build to 3 to 5
feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Outside of isolated showers and storms, no significant weather is
anticipated through the weekend. Dispersions will be generally good
across the area over the next several days. Dispersions may be high
in the southeast Big Bend Friday and over the Panhandle and Big Bend
on Sunday. Transport winds will generally be easterly around 5-10
mph Friday, then becoming northerly to northeasterly through the
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Little in the way of rainfall is expected through the next several
days. Rainfall totals will be less than an inch overall across the
area.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
Panama City   92  74  93  75 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        93  70  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      94  69  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    95  71  94  73 /  10   0  40  10
Apalachicola  88  76  88  75 /   0  10  20  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion