Clayville School New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS61 KPHI 151338
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
938 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today with strong high
pressure building in to close out the week. A low pressure
system will cross the region from the west Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For today, our stubborn low clouds continue to lessen through
daybreak. The remainder of the morning, we see some lingering
mid and high clouds that will decrease into the afternoon from
west to east. By the afternoon, we see more sunshine with a
clearing sky. There will be a cold front approaching from the
northwest that sinks southeast through our area today. This cold
front lacks a lot of moisture, so no precip is expected and it
does not add much in the way of additional cloud cover. Winds
will once again become increasingly gusty after the front passes
and we get some noticeable cold air advection where northwest
winds may gust up to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Even with the
cold front moving through, our afternoon highs are expected to
be mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Behind the cold front, we see a high pressure system building
in from the Great Lakes region which continues to allow cold air
advection to persist into Wednesday night. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most. Even with some spots
falling into the mid to upper 30s tonight, there is not a lot of
concern for frost. The colder spots for tonight have already
ended their growing season like the Poconos for example. Wind
gusts still near 20-25 mph tonight will also limit any potential
for frost. We stay mostly clear overnight with the high
pressure system building in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will remain centered over the Great
Lakes on Thursday, keeping a brisk northwesterly wind in place,
but otherwise providing plenty of sunshine. Highs Thursday in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The high only moves slightly further east Thursday night,
keeping enough gradient overhead to prevent a strong radiational
night thanks to a continued breeze, despite clear skies. Lows
Thursday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Even Friday, the high will still be just to our west, so while
the gradient is finally starting to relax more, the northwest
flow will continue. Otherwise, plenty of sun, so highs Friday
should reach the low to mid 60s.
Friday night may try to radiate as the high finally moves
nearly overhead, but warm advection will already be starting
aloft. Lows Friday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A subtle warm front will cross the region on Saturday,
providing a bit more cloud cover but also boosting temps. Highs
Saturday rising to the mid to upper 60s.
Southerly flow becomes a bit more dominant on Saturday night
which may preclude strong radiational cooling. Additional cloud
cover may also begin moving overhead as a stronger storm starts
developing to our west. Thus, lows Saturday night should remain
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Despite increased cloud cover ahead of the aforementioned
strengthening storm to our west, stronger southerly flow should
also provide enough warm advection to make Sunday the warmest of
the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 70s.
The aforementioned system likely doesn`t start spreading rain
into the region until Sunday night, but with southerly flow and
plenty of clouds, it should be the mildest night of the forecast
period. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.
The storm pulls northeastward across the region Monday. Exact
timing still a little uncertain, but right now odds favor most
rain occurring earlier in the day, with some drying and maybe
even clearing possible later on. With weak cold advection behind
it, not to mention the rain and showers, highs Monday should
stay in the mid to upper 60s.
Depending on the speed of the departure, Monday night could
keep a few showers and many clouds around, or could see partial
clearing. For now keeping lows Monday night in the mid to upper
40s.
Upper trough may linger through Tuesday, which could keep
clouds and even a few showers nearby, but not a washout. Highs
Tuesday right now look to be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Wednesday...Any lingering low CIGS quickly lift and scatter
out. VFR with SCT high clouds decreasing through the day. N-NW
winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
20 gusts in the afternoon. High confidence.
Wednesday Night...VFR with SKC. A mainly NNW wind around 10 kts
with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. High confidence.
Outlook... VFR should prevail Thursday through Saturday night.
Sub-VFR possible late Sunday as an approaching front increases
the risk of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic coastal waters are
in effect into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
on the Delaware Bay at 4 PM today and continues into tonight.
For today, a north-northwest wind around 10-15 kt in the
morning will increase to 15- 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts
up to 25-30 kt following a frontal passage. Seas of 6-8 feet.
Overnight, northerly winds around 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt. Seas remain at 6-8 feet. Fair weather outside of SCA
conditions.
Outlook... Small Craft Advisory was extended thru Thursday due
to continued northwesterly gusts to 30 kts and ocean waves up to
8 feet.
SCA likely will need additional extension through at least
Thursday night if not partly into the day Friday as winds and
seas will take some additional time to relax.
Beyond Friday, winds go solidly sub-SCA, while wave heights on
the ocean may still flirt with the 5 ft SCA criteria, but
overall a calmer period Friday night through Saturday night.
Greater risk of SCA returns Sunday ahead of the next cold
front, with southerly winds increasing and ocean waves building
back solidly above 5 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of today`s cold front, gusty winds and low humidity
will take hold for Thursday. Winds likely gust above 20 mph
along with RH`s down below 30 percent during the midday and
afternoon. As such, a Special Weather Statement may be
warranted, depending on fuel moistures.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Barnegat Bay and the back bays of southern Delaware were slow
to drain, but most impacts have now ended as water levels
continue to lower. The remaining advisories were allowed to
expire. No further tidal issues expected elsewhere.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staarmann

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion