Clayville, Rhode Island Weather Forecast Discussion

008
FXUS61 KBOX 070711
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
311 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Noticeably cooler with continued shower activity today as yesterday`s
cold front lingers off shore. Drying conditions late-afternoon into
the overnight, from northwest to southeast. High pressure building
in from the west tonight into much of next week, bringing fall-like
temperatures to the region. Will watch a coastal low pressure system
for the midweek as this may bring showers to the south coast, Cape
Cod, and Islands.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Showers continue throughout today, bringing much needed rain to
  the area.
* Noticeably cooler, with well below normal high temperatures.
The cold front that brought severe weather to southern New England
on Saturday will be slow to exit out to sea today, as an mid-level
ridge is located off shore. To our north, the mid-level trough will
breakdown and the front will washout. Until then, an anafrontal wave
will bring continued rain showers throughout the day with at times
moderate rainfall. Rainfall rates are manageable, 0.25-0.50" an hour.
But with isolated convection, those rates could be higher. Steady
rain like this is needed as much of the region has been well below
normal for rainfall. HREF mean QPF lines up fairly well with our
thinking for additional rain totals today, which are in the ballpark
of a widespread 0.5-1.0", with an outside chance for amounts to top
1.5" within convective showers. Rain will wrap from northwest to
southeast late this afternoon, showers may linger longest across
Cape Cod and the islands this evening.
Temperatures this afternoon are around 15-20 degrees cooler for the
most part. Afternoon temperatures are generally in the 60s with dew
points falling through the low 60s into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Showers exit overnight with clearing skies from northwest to the
  southeast. Tonight and Monday night will have the potential for
  effective radiational cooling, resulting in below normal overnight
  low temperatures.
* Quiet and feeling like fall for the start of the week.
Few showers linger across Cape Cod and the Islands as the cold front
through the first-half of the night, and dry early Monday morning as
high pressure builds in from the west. Clearing of the clouds occurs
and coupled with light winds, should result in radiational cooling
with areas of fog possible. Temperatures fall well into the 40s and
lower 50s, it`s possible a few areas fall to the low 40s, mainly
across northern Worcester County and northwestern Massachusetts.
Quiet conditions for the start of the work week with an area of high
pressure building on Monday. Northwest flow will usher in a cooler
and less humid airmass. 850mb temperatures are +5C to +7C and with
adequate mixing, high temperatures are expected to be on either side
of 70F. With no change in the airmass and synoptic features, Monday
night will be quiet and cool. Clear skies and light wind should
allow for another night of radiational cooling. Similar to the night
before, overnight low temperatures are on either side of 50F with the
coldest spots in northern Worcester County and far northwestern
Massachusetts. Here lows could dip down to 40F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Taste of fall with below normal day and nighttime temperatures.
* Mainly a dry week ahead, with a chance for showers from a coastal
  storm Wednesday, but there remains uncertainty with this part of
  the forecast.
The upper-level pattern heading into next week features a mid-level
ridge building across the central CONUS. Towards the end of the week
a mid-level northern stream trough crosses eastern Canada with the
shortwave energy displaced to the north. In general, it is a quiet
week across southern New England. Will watch for a southern stream
shortwave to ride the outer periphery  of the mid-level ridge over
the Atlantic towards New England on Wednesday, this could give a few
showers mainly to the south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands with less
of a chance for rain further inland. There remains uncertainty with
this part of the forecast as ensembles haven`t resolved the
northwest extent of the precipitation, but we aren`t expecting really
any impacts outside of whether or not you need the umbrella for
school or work. Otherwise, high pressure provides a dry and quiet
week. Temperature wise, as we have been advertising, this week will
feel like fall with temperatures in the lower 70s and upper 60s and
nights on either side of 50F. The one day this coming week that
would be warmer would be Thursday, though it would be fairly
seasonable in the upper 70s. A moisture starved cold front moves
through Thursday night into Friday and refreshes temperatures for
Friday, with highs back in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...Moderate confidence.
CIGs becoming MVFR/IFR across southern New England with SHRA and at
times reduced visibilities of 3SM to 5SM. Area of stratus and fog has
developed across Nantucket Sound, leading to patchy dense fog 1/2sm.
Today...High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing.
MVFR to IFR in stratus, periods of SHRA through the morning hours.
Rain begins to taper off with CIGs and visibilities improving to VFR
into the late afternoon. NW to NE winds 5-10 knots.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. SHRA clears out for much of the region, lingering slightly
longer over Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds primarily W to WNW
around 5 knots or lower.
Monday and Monday Night...High confidence.
VFR. Light NW wind 5-10 knots, becoming calm for the first-half of
the overnight, then shifting to N and NNE late in the night with
speeds increasing 8-12 knots across eastern MA and RI.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.
Front becomes hung up through this morning with lingering showers
and MVFR ceilings.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.
Front becomes hung up through this morning with lingering showers
and MVFR ceilings.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday...High confidence.
Yesterday`s cold front has become quasi-stationary off the coast, an
area of low pressure rides up along the front today with more rain.
The cold front moves off shore overnight with high pressure building
in from the west tonight into Monday. NW to N winds today with gusts
less than 20 knots, N to NNE winds on Monday with gusts less than 15
knots, and seas for both days are 2 to 4 feet.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Dooley

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion