Clinging Cemetery Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

088
FXUS64 KTSA 141127
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through much of
the work week
- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through
Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday.
Severe weather potential exists.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The light showers that persisted through the day and into much of
the early to mid evening across northeast Oklahoma have largely
pushed northward into southern Kansas late this evening, signaling
the end of the measurable rain for this event. Given the amount of
moisture around, a low chance of fog development exists toward
daybreak, with the best potential in parts of far northwest Arkansas
along the Missouri border.
With upper level ridging shifting westward, more solidly over the
region, above normal temperatures and dry conditions will arrive for
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Unseasonably warm conditions and dry weather will prevail through
much of this work week, only changing with the arrival of an upper
level storm system Friday and into the weekend. Southerly low level
winds will strengthen Friday and into Saturday, in advance of a cold
front associated with the storm system. The NBM initialization
typically struggles to capture the strength of the winds in similar
situations, and as such, wind speeds and gusts have been adjusted
upward using the NBMs 75th percentile for speeds and a blend of the
NBM init and the 90th percentile for gusts. The strong southerly
winds will lead to an increase in moisture that remains likely to be
delayed until Friday night and into Saturday. Although there are
some modest timing differences between the various model solutions,
the most consistent scenario involves thunderstorms expanding in the
vicinity of the front across northeast Oklahoma early Saturday
morning along with a slow east-southeastward expansion through the
day Saturday and a general decrease from west to east during the
evening hours. Instability and wind fields remain forecast to be
supportive of a severe weather threat across parts of the area, with
details refined in the coming days. The front will pass through the
region Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, leading to at
least a brief period of cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Expansive mid cloud layer/VFR CIGS generally north of I-40 is
expected to shift north this morning, with clouds gradually clearing
by this afternoon. Light east to southeast wind today becoming
light/variable after 15/00z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  86  60 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   88  62  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   89  60  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   85  60  85  56 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   86  57  84  56 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   83  58  81  57 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   86  62  85  59 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   84  62  84  58 /  10  10   0   0
F10   88  61  86  57 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   86  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion