Cloverdale, California Weather Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS66 KMTR 240025
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
525 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Areas of Moderate and Major HeatRisk today.
- Chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
   morning.
- Any Bay Area thunderstorms could be dry, while the Central
   Coast is expected to receive wetting rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 140 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)
Clear skies and light offshore wind this morning have caused
temperatures to climb 5-10 degrees warmer than this time
yesterday. Many inland stations are in the upper 90s with Novato
recording 102 degrees at 12:55. The heat is also making it to the
Bay shore, with downtown San Francisco recording 87 (warmest
since last October) and San Carlos 91. The winds are shifting to
onshore as the sea breeze develops, which should reverse the
warming trend on the coast.
A significant pattern change is in store overnight as a cut-off
low pressure system with ample subtropical moisture pushes in
from the south. We can say with high confidence that this will
bring significant cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and higher
humidity. There`s also a good chance for showers and possibly
thunderstorms across the Central Coast Wednesday morning. There
could be up to 1" of rain in the Santa Lucias, with closer to
1/10" in northern Monterey County. Confidence is a little lower
regarding the convective potential further north, but there is
still a chance for thunderstorms in the Bay Area through the day
Wednesday. The lower levels of the atmosphere are much drier in
the Bay Area, however. While the chances are lower, if any
thunderstorms develop over the Bay Area, it`s less likely wetting
rain will reach the ground. This dry lightning threat follows a
warm, dry period, bringing an elevated chance for wildfire
ignition. The latest trend in the CAMs is to bring renewed shower
chances early Thursday after a lull in activity Wednesday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 140 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
More seasonal weather returns by Thursday afternoon as the skies
begin to clear and temperatures return to normal. There is another
chance for rain early next week, this time from a cold front.
Ensemble cluster analysis reveals significant timing and strength
uncertainty, but it`s the next one to watch for rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A 500 mb low pressure center is located approx 300 miles southwest
of Monterey and it`s forecast to move steadily northeastward
reaching a location 90 miles southwest of Monterey this time
Wednesday. It`s VFR and clear over much of the forecast area late
this afternoon, however clouds, showers and thunderstorms rotating
around the low will continue to advance northward tonight and
Wednesday. Stratus and fog /IFR/ patches are possible along the
coast, however for the most part high based clouds, showers and
thunderstorms will prevail with the potential for gusty outflow
winds and heavy rain. With the cold core low over the north
Central Coast Wednesday night and Thursday morning expect
additional heavy showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday night
and early Thursday morning. As activity is forecast to increase
tonight and Wednesday, with the potential for quickly changing
weather - monitoring radar, satellite and observations will become
increasingly important with TAF amendments issued as needed.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low to mid level clouds increase tonight
and Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds and heavy rain.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. Low to mid level clouds
increasing tonight and Wednesday with showers and a few
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty
winds and heavy rain. With the cold core low over the north
Central Coast Wednesday night and Thursday morning expect
additional heavy showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will
arrive over the southern coastal waters late tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will steadily move northward across the waters and
bays through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will pose the risk of gusty
outflow winds, locally rough seas and locally very heavy rain.
Winds increase to a fresh breeze by the end of the week. Moderate
seas will prevail through Wednesday, building to become rough in
the outer waters Thursday into Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 932 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Warm and dry weather today will be followed by a chance for
thunderstorms overnight and continuing through the day Wednesday.
While the Central Coast is expecting a good amount of wetting
rain showers to accompany any lightning, it looks much drier
further north. There is still enough instability to trigger some
thunderstorms across the central and North Bay Wednesday, bringing
a slight chance for dry lightning to those areas on Wednesday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-508-510-513-
     515.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion