Coaldale, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

148
FXUS65 KLKN 212019
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
119 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
* Showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening with some
  storms possibly severe.
* Quiet weather through Wednesday.
* Frost over eastern NV Tuesday morning as lows dip well into the
  30s.
* Precipitation chances increase late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through early evening
hours on Sunday as an upper level trough drags its axis through
the region by early Monday morning. Cooler temperatures and
sufficient forcing are producing efficient hail making convection.
Strong and severe criteria storms are possible through the evening
across the area.
Northerly flow over the region Monday through Wednesday AM in the
eastern flank of a ridge will help dry the region out but also
create frost for portions of central, east-central, and
northeastern NV as overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s in
those locations.
As the ridge pushes east mid week background flow over the area
will shift to southerly in its western flank. Meanwhile another
low pressure system to the southwest will also migrate east and
provide some moisture and forcing over central NV to increase
precipitation chances mainly south of I-80. Beginning Thursday
evening PW values over Nye, southern Lander & Eureka, and White
Pine Counties will increase. CAPE values of near 200-300 J/kg
collocated with LI`s of -2 will initiate convective development.
Frontogenesis associated with the system just to the south will
also aid in convective efficiency over central NV. A similar setup
with better moisture on Friday which looks to be the wettest day
associated with this latest system as 0.1-0.2 rainfall
accumulations are forecast for portions of eastern Nye and White
Pine counties. Precipitation continues through Saturday though
moisture values begin to ebb with a dry day and northerly flow
forecast for next Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Hourly grids were altered for Sunday evening as NBM cleared
convection out of the area ridiculously too soon. Pops grids were
blended using RAP/GFS/Euro to create a more accurate Wx grid
depiction. Model diagnostics used current and previous 12-hr
observations to verify accuracy of models used.
&&
.AVIATION...
Look for ISOLD/SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA continuing
across the area this evening. Confidence is not high enough to
warrant anything more than VCTS at terminals at KEKO-KENV-KELY-
KTPH. Clouds will scatter out this evening with SKC at all sites
Monday. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to 20KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms were continue over all fire weather
zones through evening hours on Sunday. CWR values suggest more wet
than dry activity for all fire weather zones. The focus of
precipitation will shift more so to fire weather zones 469, 470,
425, and 427 by early evening tonight.
Northerly flow into Monday morning will help keep the area dry
though mid week. Slightly stronger sustained winds (10-15 mph)
over northern fire zones 438, 469, and 470 will be collocated with
RH values well above fire weather criteria on Monday.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...99

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion