Coatopa, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS64 KBMX 220551
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms are quickly developing across the
Tennessee River Valley early this afternoon, with development
expected to also increase southward to the I-20 corridor over the
next hour or so. A weak wedge at the surface was working into
Central Georgia with a surface wedge located over the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, a more moist southeasterly flow at the surface has
developed over much of Central Alabama. Southerly to southwesterly
flow aloft will help to produce isentropic lift on top of the
synoptic-level lift with upper level shortwave activity present
across the region. So far, the most widespread storm development
has been along Lookout Mountain across northwest Georgia and
northeast Alabama with orographic effects also contributing to
storm initiation. PoPs have been increased to 50 PoP for much of
the area, with much less rain chances along and south of the I-85
corridor. As was mentioned on this morning`s discussion, we could
see greater storm coverage over two or three counties that could
warrant an additional forecast update to likely PoPs by late this
afternoon for some locations. Storms that form today will be
pulse-like once again, but with a little less shear aloft updrafts
are expected to not be sustained as long. Still, gusty downburst-
type winds, heavy rainfall that could lead to brief localized
flooding, and cloud to ground lightning will be the main hazards
through early this evening. Before storms become more numerous
this afternoon, highs will top out in the low to mid 90s once
again.
Rain chances were kept in the forecast a little later into the
evening with ongoing mesoscale boundary interactions before
coverage finally is forecast to diminish after midnight. An upper
level trough axis will move across the Ohio River Valley during
the day on Monday, with best upper level forcing remaining off to
the north of Central Alabama. Still, scattered showers and storms
will remain possible across the northern half of the forecast
area. Slowly but surely, low-level moisture will continue to
increase as southerly flow develops from the surface to 700mb. Hot
and humid conditions will continue as highs reach the lower 90s
by Monday afternoon.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Main feature in the long term continues to be an upper level
trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern CONUS the middle
to end of the upcoming week. Global models are still having a
difficult time resolving timing and strength/shape differences in
this trough, but I think it is pretty safe to say that a
significant increase in rain coverage can be expected in central
Alabama during this time frame. Right now the ensemble based model
blends have targeted Thursday as the most likely rainiest day,
complete with a surface cold front passage, and that seems
reasonable. There will probably also be a (at least a momentary)
moderation in temperatures post frontal passage as well.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
Pesky lingering showers/storms in the vicinity of BHM are expected
to dissipate and/or move out of the area in the first hour or so
of the new TAF forecast period. With the late rain there, will
have to watch for fog formation overnight. Climatologically, fog
formation is typically less likely at BHM than other (smaller)
nearby airports, presumably due to urban heat island effect.
Looking at 06Z observations, visibilities are in the 8-10NM range
everywhere, so I went with a VFR forecast for the overnight hours.
Latest computer model runs strongly suggest that the focus of
afternoon convection on Monday will shift north of our area.
Therefore, went with a continued VFR forecast with no SHRA/TSRA
mentioned, and just some scattered daytime cumulus clouds.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
Tuesday, with scattered shower and storm chances remaining in the
forecast. Higher rain chances are expected starting on Wednesday,
perhaps lasting as late as Friday, as a cold front moves across
the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  66  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Anniston    88  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  90  70  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  92  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Calera      91  69  92  70 /  10  10   0  10
Auburn      90  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  68  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        90  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion