Cochrane Mill Park, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

975
FXUS62 KFFC 250644
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day
   through the weekend. Strong gusty winds are possible tomorrow
   afternoon with the thunderstorms, and SPC has a Marginal Risk
   (1/5) in place over GA for tomorrow.
- Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the
   cold front, starting tomorrow.
- High uncertainty in forecast beyond this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A frontal boundary is approaching Georgia, and will bring with it
instability and moisture. Periods of widespread rain are expected
tonight through the end of the short term period. Rainfall totals
are going to be around 1-1.5 inches overall. However, isolated
higher amounts are likely, particularly over north Georgia, with up
to around 3-4 inches being possible.
This afternoon, shower activity will continue, remaining generally
isolated. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, the risk
is low through tonight.
Overnight tonight, additional moisture moves in. Showers and periods
of rain are likely over northern and western Georgia. Another surge
in moisture, combined with the proximity of the frontal boundary and
daytime heating, will result in another pulse in shower activity
during the afternoon tomorrow. CAPE values are likely to be on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
likely after midday tomorrow into the evening. Some of these
thunderstorms are likely to produce strong, gusty winds, and SPC has
a Marginal Risk (1/5) for tomorrow.
Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which
will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal
levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central
Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The longterm outlook will be heavily dependent on conditions in the
Atlantic over the coming days. A relatively low latitude upper level
blocking pattern over the western Atlantic is causing chaos in up
stream flow development. So, lets start by addressing the elephant
in the room. The NHC has two 80% regions of potential tropical
development in the western Atlantic over the next 7 days. Models,
including the ECMWF and its ensemble, GEFS, and HAFS have continued
to try developing at least 1 tropical system in the area. At the
same time, the upper level trough which is bringing our short term
PoPs, begins to stall as it runs into the upper level block. Now,
the good news is that no models at this time have direct impacts
from any tropical system. However, the interplay between 2
(potentially 3) systems is exceptionally chaotic and adds extreme
uncertainty to the forecast beyond the weekend. Ensemble spread
values for wind and height at 250mb and 500mb respectively show
anomalously large values within 120hrs. This discussion is not so
much to raise awareness of the tropical systems themselves, as
impacts to the CWA are unlikely, but more to emphasis that any
forecast beyond Sunday will likely see significant
changes/uncertainty over the coming days. Generally, with the
stalling trough pattern and PWATs likely over 1" we can expect to
see some showers and thunderstorms in the cwa most days from Sunday
onward. Otherwise temperatures should be cooler than they have been
with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showers and thunderstorms have moved in across the area with the
frontal boundary moving through the region. Will see another
round of SHRA/TSRA Thu with MVFR and IFR ceilings. Winds are
expected to stay mainly out of the SW but could see some gusty
winds from any direction in and around any strong storms this
afternoon and evening. VSBYs will be mainly in the VFR to MVFR
range but could see some brief periods of IFR VSBYs with periods
of heavy precip.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  67  79  64 /  70  50  50  40
Atlanta         82  69  81  65 /  80  40  50  20
Blairsville     75  62  76  59 /  80  30  50  40
Cartersville    82  67  82  62 /  80  30  40  20
Columbus        86  69  84  66 /  80  50  60  20
Gainesville     80  68  80  64 /  80  40  50  40
Macon           88  69  81  66 /  60  50  60  40
Rome            83  67  84  64 /  70  30  40  10
Peachtree City  83  67  82  63 /  70  40  50  20
Vidalia         94  70  86  69 /  20  40  70  60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion