Cokercreek, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

845
FXUS64 KMRX 281107
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
707 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 703 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- After morning fog, dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected
today.
- Rain chances will return Tuesday and Wednesday, but the tropical
system looks even more likely to stay far enough east for totals to
be limited overall.
- Thursday through the weekend, dry and seasonal conditions are
  expected with daytime highs generally in the 70s and lows in the
  50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Currently early this morning, troughing is just to our east with
Hurricane Humberto well off to the east of Cuba. Tropical Depression
9 is also just north of Cuba and still below tropical storm strength
at this exact time. With high pressure and recent rainfall, patchy
dense fog continues to develop this morning but will likely lift
soon after sunrise. Throughout the day, the tropical system is
expected to become a tropical storm and track over the Bahamas. The
overall pattern aloft is pretty complex with troughing becoming cut
off before merging with the tropical system and a 500mb high to our
northwest. Today is expected to be dry due to the continued
subsidence and drier environment, evidenced by PWATs near or below 1
inch. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the focus will turn
towards the tropical system, expected to be a hurricane that tracks
east of Florida before turning back out to the Atlantic. This is
given a persistent shift in model guidance with none of the 00Z GEFS
members, for example, showing a track inland. There will still be
some increase in moisture with an upper-low also developing to our
south by Wednesday. Moisture will still be sufficient for scattered
showers and storms, especially further east, but the trend has
certainly been downward than in recent days.
Late in the week and into the weekend, the pattern will turn drier
again with more broad ridging across the eastern U.S. This will also
be coupled with strengthening surface high pressure. With 500mb
heights still around 5,850m (75th to 90th percentile), temperatures
will remain mild during the day. However, the drier air and better
subsidence conditions will allow for temperatures to cool off more
than we`ve seen the last several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Patchy dense fog continues across much of the area with TRI likely
to stay LIFR through at least 13Z before improving back to VFR.
TYS has just improved, but fog remains possible over the next hour
or so. As conditions improve, mostly clear skies can be expected,
along with northeasterly winds of around 10 kts. Rain is not
anticipated in our area today. Tonight, patchy fog is possible
again at TYS and TRI but was left out of the TAFs for the time
being.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  65  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  62  83  63 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  62  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  60  79  61 /   0   0  20  30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion