Collins, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS64 KJAN 061124 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
624 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Today...A cold front dropping southeast through the forecast area
through this afternoon, will result in showers and storms affecting
the forecast area through mainly the morning and early afternoon
hours.  With cooler drier air over-running the CWA through the
course of the morning, convection is forecast to dissipate across
the area through the afternoon, despite the front continuing its
southeast trek through the area. This scenario looks to keep the
better rain chances confined to mainly northern and central portions
of the forecast area today.
High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front as
it clears the CWA late in the afternoon. The resulting advecting
cooler drier airmass into the region will result in a wide array of
high temperatures across the forecast area today.  Therefore, look
for them to range from the upper 70s across the Delta to the lower
90s across the Pine Belt region. /19/
Tonight through next Friday...The overall forecast for the long term
period remains on track with no adjustments made to the overall
forecast. A few lingering showers will be possible across a good
portion of our forecast area as near term guidance from both the GFS
and the Euro show the cold front tracking southward towards the Gulf
Coast by Saturday evening. Quiet weather conditions will dominate
our forecast heading into the overnight period as high pressure
builds into the region. Areas north of I-20 will see nighttime
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Elsewhere, areas long and
south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the mid 60s. Looking ahead
into Sunday, slightly cooler and drier conditions will continue to
advect south into the CWA thanks to north to northeast flow.
Overall, quiet weather conditions with slightly normal late summer
conditions will exist across our forecast area Sunday through Monday
night.
The remainder of the extended period will remain generally quiet
Tuesday through Thursday. Global guidance continues to show
mid/upper level troughing beginning to slowly slide east across the
area through Thursday evening. This will allow for ridging aloft to
gradually build into the region from the west. Regarding the rain
chances, portions of southeast MS could see a slight chance of
scattered showers by Tuesday afternoon, with afternoon PoPs between
15-20%. Ridging aloft will continue across our CWA Friday through
the weekend with afternoon highs peaking into the low 90s areawide.
/CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A cold front, and convection associated with it, will continue
moving southeast through the forecast area during the course of
the day. The combination of degraded ceilings and visibilities as
a result of both, could result in flight categories falling to
MVFR, and possibly IFR, status through mid-afternoon. Winds will
become northerly today, with a few gusts between 15-18 knots
possible this morning, but decreasing to between 5-10 knots come
this afternoon. As the drier air stabilizes our airmass through
the morning, convection is forecast to erode from late morning
through mid-afternoon as it pushes further south and east. This
will allow for a return to VFR categories areawide by this
evening, which will into early Sunday morning. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  84  60 /  50  10   0   0
Meridian      88  65  84  60 /  40  10   0   0
Vicksburg     82  65  84  60 /  50  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   93  69  88  63 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       85  66  84  61 /  40  10  10   0
Greenville    77  61  84  57 /  60  10   0   0
Greenwood     79  62  85  57 /  60  10   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion