Columbia, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS61 KAKQ 050110
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
910 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west through this evening,
bringing a chance for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over inland areas. A second, stronger
cold front crosses the area late Saturday into Sunday, with
additional scattered showers and storms possible. Cool high
pressure builds north of the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Showers and storms taper off by around midnight with clearing
  skies late tonight.
Latest analysis depicted a line of weakening showers across
mainly NE NC, SE VA, and the Eastern Shore. This convection is
expected to taper off over the next couple of hours with
convection ending by around midnight. The severe threat has
ended. Clouds are expected to clear late tonight. Mild tonight
with lows generally in the lower 60s W to upper 60s E along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday, with
  highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
  afternoon and evening ahead of a much stronger cold front.
Another warm day tomorrow, with winds remaining out of the
S-SW. That deep-layered SW flow should keep the day mostly sunny
and dry, while also promoting another modest warmup. Highs
tomorrow are likely to be the warmest around the lower mid-
Atlantic since mid-August, with temperatures hovering around 90
for most areas west of the Bay under a mainly sunny sky.
Remaining mild into Friday night, with lows generally in the
upper 60s to around 70.
By Saturday, another strong closed low lifts NE out of the upper
Great Lakes and eastern Canada. This will send the attendant
strong surface cold toward the area Saturday, with that front
crossing the area Saturday evening. Compressional heating will
be maximized ahead of the approaching front on Saturday, with
highs a few degrees warmer than those of Friday, and ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Additional chances of showers
and storms will be possible, both along the pre-frontal trough
Saturday afternoon over the piedmont and then with the actual
frontal passage on Saturday evening. Coverage looks to be more
widespread than what we see later today, with better forcing,
more favorable deep-layer bulk shear and instability, as well as
steepening low- level lapse rates. PoPs have been increased
into the high chance to likely range (40-60%), peaking Saturday
evening. Similar to today, damaging wind gusts would be the main
threat with any stronger storms. SPC has introduced a Marginal
Risk over the NW 2/3 of the area, roughly along and NW of a line
from Ahoskie to Williamsburg and Salisbury, MD. The cold front
pushes through the area by Saturday night with a clearing sky
late inland allowing lows to fall back into upper 50s inland,
60s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler weather returns Sunday into early next week.
The front slides offshore Sunday into Sunday night, as chilly
Canadian high pressure begins to build in from the NW. Additional
showers and isolated storms cannot be ruled out along the coast
on Sunday as the front exits, but otherwise expect the clearing
trend to persist. Temperatures Sunday look to be markedly cooler
compared to Saturday, with highs only in the lower to mid 70s
inland, with upper 70s far SE.
High pressure continues to build into the area Monday/Tuesday
with the coastal trough also shifting a bit farther offshore.
Dry, fall-like days look to be back in place for early next
week, with high temperatures only in the 70s and lows in the
low 60s along the coast, to 50s inland with a few upper 40s
possible well inland each morning from Tue-Wed. Rain chances
remain quite low through the period, though they may increase
across far SE portions of the area toward the end of the period
Wednesday into Thursday, as moisture rides north along the
stalled coastal trough.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Thursday...
A line of weakening showers and storms was located from Emporia
NE through the Northern Neck as of 740 PM. This line has already
passed RIC and is expected to weaken as it moves E over the next
few hours. Confidence in convection reaching any of the
terminals is low, however, confidence is a bit higher at
PHF/SBY. As such, have added VCSH to the TAFs for those
terminals. Additionally, can`t rule out some patchy fog
overnight with the best chance across the Piedmont and where
rain occurred this afternoon/evening, however, confidence is
low. Otherwise, convection tapers off by around midnight with
SCT- BKN cirrus clearing from W to E overnight. Mostly sunny to
partly cloudy conditions are expected Fri with afternoon CU
developing. Winds were SW/S 5-10 kt this evening with slightly
higher winds near/along the coast. Winds diminish to ~5 kt
overnight before increasing to ~10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by
Fri afternoon.
Outlook: Dry/VFR Friday night. Another chance of late day and
evening isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storms for all
terminals on Saturday, with gusty winds and short-lived VIS/CIG
restrictions possible in heavier showers and storm. VFR
conditions return Sunday through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small crafts continue to prevail across the bay this afternoon and
evening.
- Moderate Rip Risk for the northern beaches tomorrow.
- Additional Small craft conditions are expected across the bay
late Friday with additional SCA chances continuing through much of
the forecast period.
High pressure continues to remain off the coast this afternoon as
the cold front continues to move out of the NW but still remains far
from the local area. The pressure gradient ahead of the front has
increase leading to SE to S winds to be between 10 to 15 kt with
some gusts around 20 kt. Waves this afternoon remain between 1 to
2ft across the bay and 2 to 3ft across the ocean. Later this
afternoon and evening both waves and seas are expected to rise.
Winds will rise to 15 to possible 20 kt with some gusts nearing 25
kt. Small Crafts continue for the bay as there is higher confidence
and longer duration of SCA conditions. However, there is the
possibility of SCA conditions across the northern ocean zones
bordering the Eastern Shore. However, due to the short duration of
these isolated 25kt gusts decided to hold off on SCA for the
northern ocean zones. Seas will also rise to 2 to 3 ft across the
bay and 3 to 4 across the ocean.
By tomorrow morning winds will will diminish and will stay Sub-SCA
through much of the day before the decaying cold front moves through
the area in the mid to late afternoon. By that time frame winds will
increase out o the SE to ~15 with maybe some gusts nearing 20 kt.
Local wind probs have increase to 80 to 90% of frequent gusts of 18
kt during the late afternoon of tomorrow and into early Saturday
morning. Additional SCA maybe needed for the bay again. A much
stronger front is forecast to pass through late in the weekend.
Continues to go with the higher side of guidance for the northerly
winds behind the front, since guidance tends to be too low when
cooler, drier air moves in over the warm waters this time of year.
SCAs will likely be needed for at least the bay Sunday into Monday.
Looking ahead in the extended the NE wind is expected to prevail as
a high pressure moves over New England. This will allow for winds
and seas to increase.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...
As the SE to S wind prevail this will allow for Tidal anomalies to
increase reaching 1-1.5 feet above normal by tonight`s high tide
cycle. Some nuisance to minor flooding will be possible Friday
morning, again mainly in the upper Bay. The highest high tide looks
to be tonight, with minor to near moderate flood thresholds possible
at Bishops Head. Coastal Flood statements have been issued for
portions of the Northern Neck and Advisories for portions of the
Eastern Shore on the bay side.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for VAZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/HET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion