Columbine, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

054
FXUS65 KABQ 011134 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry and warm weather prevails through Friday then rainfall
  chances increase from the west Friday night. Gusty south to
  southwest winds will also increase Friday and Saturday, creating
  hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
- Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern
  New Mexico next week (moderate to high confidence).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
It will be a very pleasant couple of days around the Land of
Enchantment. A subtropical ridge over Mexico will continue to
amplify over the desert southwest today and tomorrow, allowing temps
to climb a few degrees each of the next couple of afternoons.
Despite the warm afternoon temps, clear dry weather will allow for
efficient radiational cooling overnight, particularly in western
and central valleys. Winds will be relatively light both today and
tomorrow, with only a light breeze in eastern NM thanks to a weak
lee side low that will develop in the TX Panhandle.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
After a period of pleasant Fall weather, the pattern turns more
active on Friday as a longwave trough digs into The Great Basin.
Winds aloft will increase Friday afternoon, dropping sfc pressure in
the plains of Colorado. Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
likely in the northeast corner of the state as a result. Meanwhile,
jet forcing will provide the lift for precipitation development in
western New Mexico. Ensemble guidance has trended slightly slower
and deeper with the approaching trough which should delay the onset
of precipitation across the west until the evening or overnight
hours Friday.
As the jet streak rounds the base of the trough, it will tilt the
trough neutrally and eventually lift it out of the Intermountain
West on Saturday, preventing precipitation chances from spreading
eastward. A Pacific frontal passage is likely to pass through
Saturday, dropping temps 5 to 15 degrees with the more dramatic
temperature change in the west. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF both
show this system lifting into the northern plains which should
prevent a backdoor frontal intrusion into eastern NM over the
weekend. Rain chances on Saturday will favor the northern
mountains and instability will be modest at best so precipitation
will likely be light and showery, with a few embedded storms
during the afternoon. Sunday will be both drier and less windy
than Saturday in the wake of the weak Pacific front.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that troughing will deepen
over the Great Basin early next week, likely in response to above
average convective in the eastern Pacific basin. As a result,
subtropical moisture will continue streaming in from the south as it
had done throughout much of September. However, the interaction of
jet dynamics with this moisture will be the main driver of
precipitation as opposed to sfc heating and strong instability as
it was during the latter portion of the monsoon. During this
period, we will be keeping a close eye on the eastern Pacific
because this synoptic pattern will be favorable for drawing up
any tropical systems in the eastern Pacific. Interestingly, both
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are doing just that towards the
end of next week. This much deeper moisture could increase rain
rates and pose a flash flood risk, especially if a backdoor front
and Gulf moisture were to be involved as well. All 3 ensemble
means are in good agreement that the highest rain totals will
focus over northern NM next week where PWATs will be around 2 std
dev above normal for almost the entire week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. A
light SW breeze will develop after 18Z in most terminals today,
with gusts generally under 20 kts. Other than a few mid-level
clouds, clear skies will continue to prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Temperatures will trend higher the next couple of days with dry
weather prevailing around the area. Light winds trend stronger on
Friday, particularly in northeastern NM, in response to an
approaching trough. Rain chances will favor north-central NM Friday
night through Saturday where there is a low to moderate chance of
wetting rainfall. Gusty south winds turn around to the west on
Sunday with the passage of a Pacific front. Temperatures will
decrease behind the front, but will remain near to slightly above
average in most areas. Rain chances increase again early next week
and will likely stick around through the rest of the workweek
(moderate to high confidence). Breezy south winds will likely
prevail each afternoon next week as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  36  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  73  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  75  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  77  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  81  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  50  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  72  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  36  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  68  27  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  75  40  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  71  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  45  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  51  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  47  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  82  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  82  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  81  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  77  55  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  81  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  84  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  53  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  42  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  55  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  74  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  78  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  80  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  83  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  79  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  86  49  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  50  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  86  51  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  87  56  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  86  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion