Columbus Park, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

007
FXUS61 KOKX 222028
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
428 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain just offshore through Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front will approach late Tuesday into Tuesday
night and stall nearby on Wednesday. A slow moving area of low
pressure will then approach from the west and impact the region
from Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Elongated surface ridge extends from Nova Scotia SW to just off
the New England and Mid Atlantic coasts, and will remain in
place through tonight. Low level flow has become southerly and
with weak warm air/moisture advection temps tonight should not
be as cool as last night, with lows from the upper 50s to mid
60s, with mostly cloudy skies from NYC north/west as afternoon
clouds there in places have been stubborn to scatter out. Some
low stratus may also be possible in the NYC metro area and along
the coast late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The area will lie between weak offshore upper ridging, a closed
low well to the NE over ern Canada, and another weak closed low
over the upper Great Lakes region. Shortwave energy ejecting
form the Great Lakes low will send a cold front toward the area
late Tue into Tue night, with chance of showers and possibly a
tstm late in the afternoon mainly well NW of NYC. As the front
moves closer to the area Tue night, PoP increases to likely for
most of the area along with slight chance of thunder, then
shifts more into SE CT and eastern Long Island after midnight.
Temps on Tue will be on the warm side, with highs reaching the
lower 80s for the NYC metro area and across most of the
interior, and the mid/upper 70s for most of Long Island and SE
CT. Temps Tue night with clouds and precip around will also
remain mild, with lows in the 60s.
The front now looks to stall closer to the area than previously
fcst, either right over or just south of the area on Wed, with
chances for showers mainly in the afternoon. High temps should
range from the lower 80s in urban NE NJ, to the mid/upper 70s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure is expected to impact the
  region through much of the period.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with a
  threat of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. Timing
  and coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure
  builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the
  70s. The warmest day in the long term will be Sunday, with
  temperatures possibly reaching 80 in the NJ/NYC metro.
  Nighttime lows will be slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal system approaches the area for Tuesday.
Mainly VFR. CIGS around 4000 ft thru the TAF period, although
some pockets of MVFR or lower are possible tonight, especially
easternm terminals. Have a mention of some lower clouds for ISP
and GON.
Showers look to remain mainly N and W of the area on Tuesday,
generally holding off til 00Z Wednesday and later. Did include
a prob30 for SWF, and there is a chance showers could reach the
NYC airports if the timing speeds up a little.
Winds S today, veering slightly to the SW tonight, and
remaining S/SW on Tuesday. Speeds generally around 11kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Some variability in wind direction possible thru 00Z. Low prob
that pockets of MVFR CIGS impact the area tngt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible mainly aft 00Z. Chc for
shwrs and perhaps an isold tstm.
Wednesday through Friday: Periods of MVFR with shwrs possib0le.
Isold tstms possible at times.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas have fallen just below 5 ft, but per trend at buoys
well offshore think sets of higher swells from distant Hurricane
Gabrielle should start to come back in tonight. Therefore the
SCA continues for the ocean waters, and has also been extended
into Wed morning from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet and
through the day Wed E of there to Montauk. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for further details on Gabrielle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front from late Tue
afternoon into Tue evening could produce downpours that result
in brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales,
mainly across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
interior SW CT. Antecedent conditions have been notably dry, and
the risk for flash flooding is low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development through
Wednesday at the ocean beaches as a long period 4-5 ft SE swell
arrives from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...BC/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion