Colwich, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

663
FXUS63 KICT 082350
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of central and
  south-central KS this afternoon; additional development possible
  this evening and tonight
- More storm chances Wednesday morning and Thursday morning; small
  rain chances for late weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
As of 2 PM, numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of central and south-central KS. These are due in part to a
persistent low-mid level WAA pattern. The duration of these storms
has been due to the large scale midlevel trough remaining well-west
across northeast CO and the mean flow is orthogonal to the initiation
zone. Latest WV reveals the main shortwave trough is ejecting into
northwest KS and is gradually shifting the axis of rainfall east and
southeast. Thus far, MRMS is suggesting upwards of 12" of rain has
fallen over portions of Lincoln, Ellsworth, and Saline counties.
Fortunately, the heaviest rain is shifting out of these areas.
The LLJ will strengthen overnight from the eastern TX Panhandle
through southeast NE. This may provide another focal point for WAA
driven showers and storms along and east of the KS Turnpike. PW up
to 1.5" once again will support heavy rainfall. Another
night/morning of WAA driven convection is possible late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning with the best chances west of I-135. The
midlevel ridge will slide across the area Thursday into the upcoming
weekend. A strong midlevel trough will eject into the northern
Plains late Saturday into Sunday, shunting a cold front towards the
area for Sunday. The overall pattern will become dominate by an
omega block with troughing in the western and eastern CONUS with
ridging across the Plains. This is should lead to mostly dry
conditions with seasonal temperatures next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist overnight
through at least Tuesday morning east of Interstate 135,
impacting primarily the CNU TAF site (although ICT TAF site will
be impacted by thunderstorm chances through about 01 or 02z).
The strongest activity will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and locally heavy rainfall, which could reduce
visibilities to 3 miles or less at times.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion