272 FXUS63 KGRB 051925 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 225 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to isolated showers through Saturday, with the greatest chances in north-central Wisconsin.

- Blustery conditions this evening, with westerly winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph.

- Near-record cold maximum temperatures are possible through this weekend. Frost potential Sunday and Monday morning. Moderating temperatures early next week, but remaining below normal.

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Cyclonic flow, gusty westerly winds, along with light showers and sprinkles will continue this evening as a shortwave, seen on water vapor imagery over South Dakota, tracks east through Wisconsin. Winds will ease a bit later tonight behind the departing shortwave as showers and sprinkles become less numerous. The best chance for showers will be across north-central Wisconsin tonight with added moisture from Lake Superior.

Additional shortwaves will provide more opportunities for light rain showers and sprinkles Saturday into Saturday evening. An upstream high pressure system will build in from the west, which will bring a drying trend to the region late Saturday night into Sunday.

The high will track east Sunday night, allowing for return flow on Monday. An approaching cold front will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region from Monday night through Tuesday evening as it slowly tracks through the area. High pressure should then keep the rest of the week dry.

Temperatures/Frost Potential...An abnormally cold airmass will continue to reside over the area through the weekend, resulting in well below normal temperatures. Several sites are expected to set new record low maxes for today, with additional records potentially in jeopardy on Saturday. See the climate section for more details about records. The addition of the surface high pressure system moving into the region Sunday into Monday, may allow for a couple periods of frost development in portions of the region Sunday morning and Monday morning with low temperatures forecast in the mid 30s to low 40s. The return flow early next week will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s and low 70s, but remain below normal.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Gusty westerly winds of 20 to 30 knots along with MVFR/VFR cigs and a few light showers and sprinkles prevailed across the area early this afternoon. These conditions will continue this afternoon as a shortwave tracks through the western Great Lakes region. While all of the TAF sites could see a light shower or sprinkle through this evening, the coverage will be too isolated and brief to include in the TAFs. Winds will gradually diminish late this evening and pick up again Saturday morning with gusts to around 15 knots. CIGs will eventually rise to VFR everywhere by Saturday as bases slowly rise, rising the latest across north- central Wisconsin.

.MARINE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Westerly winds will continue to gust to 25 to 30 knots this evening, causing conditions hazardous to small craft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the bay and nearshore waters through midnight. Winds and waves should then remain below headline criteria for the rest of the weekend.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

The unseasonably cold airmass will bring additional chances of setting record low maximum temperatures on Saturday (9/6). Here is a look the current records and forecast values for Green Bay, Rhinelander, and Wausau.

Green Bay

Date Record Low Max Forecast High ---- -------------- -------------

9/6 58F(1965) 60F

Rhinelander

Date Record Low Max Forecast High ---- -------------- -------------

9/6 55F(1956) 56F

Wausau

Date Record Low Max Forecast High ---- -------------- -------------

9/6 56F(1965) 58F.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......Kurimski MARINE.........Kurimski CLIMATE........Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion