Comfort, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS62 KMHX 301045
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are
expected to remain offshore, but will bring coastal impacts to
the area through late week due to their respective swells.
Strong high pressure will build in from the north the next few
days and into the weekend bringing with it a prolonged period
of strong NE winds midweek and cooler and drier conditions mid
to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows sfc high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic and NE, while Imelda and Humberto
continue to churn offshore over the Western Atlantic. Both
tropical cyclones will grad push E-NE and further offshore
today. The gradient will continue to tighten between the high
and the two cyclones, with NE winds increasing, gusting 20-30
mph today. Light showers continue stream in from the S/SW this
morning. Weak impulse embedded within the Imelda tropical
moisture plume will continue to support areas of light showers
through late morning and early afternoon. Models continue to
trend drier overall today. Will keep chance pops through
afternoon, with best chances across the southern half of the
area. Dry air will gradually filter in from the north this
afternoon with PWATs falling below 1.5" late. Widespread clouds
and NE flow will again keep temps in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Tue...High pressure will continue to build in from
the north, as Imelda and Humberto gradually push E-NE and
further offshore. Gradient between the systems will continue to
tighten as strong NE winds continue. Wind Advisory remains in
effect for Hatteras/Ocracoke Islands and Downeast tonight, with
NE wind gusts up to 45 mph. Drier air begins to filter in
overnight. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to
   a prolonged period of gusty NE winds this week.
- Wind Advisory continues for portions of the Outer Banks and
   Down East Carteret County through Wednesday.
Imelda and Humberto will quickly list ENE away from the region
on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave slides off the
Northeast Coast. Sfc high pressure will build in from the north
while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS through the
remainder of the long term.
Strong pressure gradients between the high building in and the
tropical systems off the coast will continue to bring winds
around 25-35 mph with gust around 40-45 mph across portions of
the Outer Banks on Wednesday, strongest across Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands and Down East Carteret County, and continue the
Wind Advisory here. Inland areas will see gusts around 25-35
mph. NE winds gradually weaken Wednesday night through the end
of the week, then veer to easterly as the sfc high migrates off
the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Generally dry weather is expected for most area through the long
term although a coastal trough offshore may produce periods of
showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance does show some
of these showers working their way toward the coast, especially
over weekend into next week with easterly flow developing as the
highs moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the work week
with highs in the mid 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the
weekend with highs around 80/lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Widespread IFR cigs persist across the
terminals this morning. IFR cigs likely to persist through late
morning and early afternoon, before grad lifting to MVFR then
returning to VFR by late afternoon. Scattered light showers
possible through this afternoon, which may temporarily reduce
vsbys. Breezy NE winds today, gusting 20-25 kt.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the north. NE
winds will gust to around 25 kt inland and 35kt along the coast
on Wednesday, the will be a little weaker each day through the
end of the week. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward
the end of the week when winds will be weaker and low levels
decouple overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Tue...Treacherous conditions will continue across
the waters with strong NE winds and dangerous seas.
Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-11 ft. The
gradient continues to tighten between high pressure to the north
and offshore Hurricane Humberto and TS Imelda to the E and SE.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the waters today
and tonight, with long period swell (8-11 ft/13-15 sec) and
strong NE winds 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt. Seas will build to
8-15 ft today. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and
sounds, with SCAs for the inland rivers.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected through the long term,
   with swell from two tropical cyclones impacting the waters as
   well as strong NEerly gradient winds expected through much
   of the work-week.
Tight pressure gradients from high pressure building in from
the north and two tropical systems across the western Atlantic
will bring strong NE winds through much of the week. Most waters
will continue to experience Gale Force winds on Wednesday
(except the inland rivers), then will see gradual improvement
through the week as the tropical systems move further offshore.
Seas expected to peak around 10-15 ft on Wednesday, then will
very slowly subside through the rest of the long term as long
period swell from both tropical system will continue to impact
the waters, however seas 6 ft or greater expected to keep SCA
conditions through the rest of the long term.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 AM Tue...Building long period swell and strong NE
winds will lead to minor to moderate oceanside flooding over the
next few days. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal
flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound,
Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers. CF Warnings and Advisories continue
with waters levels rising today.
Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell
from distant Humberto is expected to peak today into Wednesday.
While Humberto begins to move away later this week, swell from
Imelda then quickly arrives into the area and likely peaks
closer to the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. As a result,
swell impacts are expected to last much of the upcoming week,
which include dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, and
the potential for ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave
runup impacts. Most significant impacts at the moment look to be
across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke
where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible today into Thu
given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of
inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX.
The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may
exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell.
High Surf Advisories remain for the entire coast for rough surf
and beach erosion.
Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to
water level rises the next few days. 1-2ft of inundation is
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and
Pamlico/Pungo rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ080-094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Wednesday for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ196-204-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion