Commerce City, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

815
FXUS65 KBOU 270531
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1131 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry Saturday.
- The next disturbances will be weak, bringing a chance of light
  precipitation Sunday to Wednesday, mainly for the mountains.
- Temperatures will remain above normal most days.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The upper level ridge axis is expected to amplify across the
forecast area Saturday, limiting any moisture advection from the
Desert Southwest. As a result, we expect another mostly sunny day,
although temperatures will be a few degrees cooler thanks to a
cold front that will be moving across the northeast plains this
evening. However, the forecast highs in the mid to upper 70s over
most of the plains and I-25 Corridor will still be a degree or two
above normal.
On Sunday, models are still consistent shifting the ridge axis to
our east, and shearing the upper low in the deep Desert Southwest.
This will allow moisture advection to begin, although with southerly
flow the best moisture advection and main shower/storm chances
Sunday afternoon and evening will remain over the mountains. It
appears that most lower elevation areas will stay dry, with only
an isolated high based weak storm/sprinkle given high cloud bases
and limited instability. That should change a little by Monday as
models do show the shearing trough pushing northeast across
Colorado. As a result, we expect a little more forcing, higher
moisture, and a better chance of scattered showers/few storms
spreading onto the plains.
By Tuesday, we`ll likely be in between disturbances but more
uncertainty enters the picture since there are some timing
differences between models/ensemble members. The best consensus is
for a weak shortwave passage late Tuesday night or Wednesday with
another chance of showers and a few storms. However, any
precipitation is expected to be light with limited moisture
availability and minimal instability.
We then see another totally dry day or two Thursday into Friday,
before the next weather disturbance arrives in west/southwest flow
aloft. It should be noted there`s quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding timing here.
Temperatures will average a few degrees above normal through this
entire forecast period; highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s
degree range in lower elevations, mid 60s to lower 70s foothills
and high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR through the TAF period. We`ll see mainly light and variable
through 18Z Saturday, though there may be a push of weak north to
northwest winds 10-14Z. After 18Z Saturday, southeast winds will
develop and increase around 21Z with gusts up to 25 knots.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Meier

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion