Comstock, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

128
FXUS63 KMPX 030831
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  near record highs and lows through Sunday.
- Windy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with gusts of 35
  to 50 mph possible, strongest on Sunday.
- Much cooler next week with areas of frost possible Tuesday
  night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A mostly clear night across southern Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin, but temperatures are still holding solidly in the mid
60s for most (except western MN, with upper 50s). The overnight
low temperatures are only around 5 degrees cooler than the
typical daytime highs this time of year (66 degrees). Patchy fog
is prevalent across central Minnesota, particularly around and
north of St. Cloud, but should quickly disperse this morning.
Scattered visibility reductions are being reported as a result.
Today will be similar to yesterday, but warmer yet. A few
locations along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN have a chance
at 90 (although MSP got close yesterday with a high of 87). A
deep trough continues to slowly propagate eastward from the
west coast. This continues to allow a ridge to build and
bringing the heat with it. This stretch of well above normal
temperatures will continue through most of the weekend until a
cold front pushes through on Sunday. Backtracking to later
today, the low- level jet will strengthen, bringing gusty
southerly winds to the region. The potential magnitude for the
winds continues to fluctuate, but forecast soundings and NBM
probabilities suggest at least 30-35 kt gusts are likely through
the weekend, with a few 40-45+ kt gusts not out of question.
The potential for a Wind Advisory remains on the table.
The cold front will swing through Sunday evening (afternoon in
western MN), quickly dropping our near-record temps back to only
slightly above normal. The NAM has the trough progressing east
slightly slower than the Canadian and ECMWF, which would mean
the heat would last longer into the day on Sunday. Temperatures
will drop 30 to 35 degrees in a matter of about 6 hours,
bottoming out in the upper 40s and low 50s early Monday morning.
This will feel quite chilly after we have acclimated to the
summer-like temps these past few days, but they are right at
normal for early October.
Looking ahead to mid-week, seasonable highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s (maybe 30s Wed AM) will be met with another rebound
to warmer temperatures by late week. This being said, there are
large discrepancies between models when it comes to the late
week forecast with almost a 20 degree spread between the ECMWF
and Canadian/GFS. What can be said with medium high confidence
is that the early to mid-week forecast should contain pleasant
fall-like weather as high pressure settles.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Prevailing VFR through the period. An isolated area of showers
which impacted RNH late yesterday has moved off to the NE and
looks to have missed EAU. Mid-level cu is expected mid to late
morning across most sites. Southerly winds are forecast to
increase with gusts ranging between 18-21kts especially for our
western sites. Winds speeds are expected to remain slightly
elevated through the remainder of the period. An approaching
trough could create a few hours of near 40kt LLWS possible as
the trough passes. Although was reluctant to include any LLWS
due to lacked confidence on exact timing.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 20-25G30-35 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15-20G30-40kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Record lows/highs for this weekend:
FRISATSUN
MSP    72/90   68/89       63/88
STC    64/88       64/88       58/89
EAU    72/89       67/86       64/84
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Dunleavy
CLIMATE...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion