Conantville, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS61 KBOX 281822
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Skies will continue to clear through the rest of today, giving
way to clear skies tonight. Warm and dry weather continues
tomorrow with reduced humidity. Quiet conditions Tuesday through next
weekend as mid-level ridging and surface high pressure is in
control across the northeast. Trending cooler this week and
potential for morning frost in the high terrain by late week. A
brief period of gusty northeast winds midweek due to a
strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure and
distant Hurricane Humberto. Additionally, large swell will lead
to dangerous rip currents midweek as Hurricane Humberto moves
out to sea.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Cooler tonight with clear skies
Skies continue to clear across southern New England today with
clouds associated with the weak low passing to our south moving
offshore. Skies should be clear across the region tonight with light
winds as high pressure begins to creep in, allowing for good
radiational cooling. Dew points fall as well as drier air
begins to move in; lows may fall into the 40s over the interior
with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Coastal areas may remain slightly
warmer overnight with lows in the low 60s possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Less humid Monday, though still warm
High pressure continues to build over the region Monday, keeping
skies clear and winds remaining light. Local sea breezes will
develop in the late morning/early afternoon hours. 925 mb
temperatures range between 16-19C, supporting high temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s again with some spots reaching 80F. However, it
will feel less humid as dew points fall into the 40s and 50s. Some
high clouds may begin to move in during the afternoon hours
associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, which will remain well to our
south.
A front moves through going into Tuesday which will shift winds more
NE. Lows Monday night won`t be as cool as tonight with continued
high clouds limiting radiational cooling; temperatures are expected
to fall into the mid 50s for most, with lows again in the low 60s
possible in coastal areas. A few spots in the upper CT Valley may
see a few temperatures in the upper 40s, but it won`t be as
widespread as tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Prolonged dry period this week through the upcoming weekend.
* Mild Tuesday, below normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday,
  with the potential for frost in higher terrain overnight Wednesday
  and Thursday. Return of seasonable temperatures next weekend.
* Large swell from distant Hurricane Humberto to bring rough surf
  and dangerous rip currents to south facing beaches midweek.
Very little has changed in the extended section of the forecast. A
prolong period of quiet weather across much of the northeast due to
an amplified mid-level ridge and surface high pressure. With very
low PWATs, continue to anticipate mainly clear days and nights into
the end of the coming week. No notable rainfall either.
Temperature wise, Tuesday is the warmer of the days, as 925mb are
+15C to +18C, supportive of temperatures in the middle to upper 70s,
while the coast is a tad cooler due to the onshore wind. Wednesday
through Friday, those values drop into the single digits and lower
teens, with below normal temperatures in the upper 50s to middle
60s. Additionally, overnight temperatures of Wednesday and Thursday
are expected to be quite cold in the 30s because of radiational
cooling. Cannot rule out frost developing in the high elevations AOA
1,000 feet in the Berkshires and northern hills of Worcester County.
The fall frost/freeze program for those areas ends on October 1st,
thus no headlines would be issued, plan accordingly. Heading towards
next weekend, temperatures aloft warm, will return to seasonable
daytime and overnight temperatures.
Midweek there are gusty northeast winds as result of a strengthening
pressure gradient between the surface high pressure over New England
and Hurricane Humberto. Minimal impacts to those on land, though it
could result in marginal gale force gusts for our mariners.
Additionally, swells for Hurricane Humberto will build off shore by
Wednesday to 10 to 12 feet. While it`s outside of peak beach season
it`s anticipated to bring strong/dangerous rip currents to south
facing beaches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z Update...
Today through Monday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. Skies continue to clear through 18z today from NW to SE.
SW-W wind increasing to 8-15 kt today then light to calm
tonight. Light wind Mon with sea-breezes developing. Light winds
gradually shift more W to NW Monday night.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to
30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Relatively tranquil boating conditions through Monday with weak
high pres over the waters bringing light winds and seas. Seas do
begin to build late Monday night/early Tuesday morning with some
areas in the outer waters reaching 5 ft.
Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Dooley/Hrencecin

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion