Conception, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

859
FXUS63 KEAX 070752
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain chances Monday into Tuesday.
- Well above normal temperatures for the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Water vapor imagery shows the Hudson Bay low and its associated
troughing over the Great Lakes, shifting eastward into eastern
Ontario and western Quebec. Upper ridging was building over the
western US. Within this upper ridging, an a subtle wave was moving
eastward through CO. At the surface, high pressure was situated from
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, southward into the lower Missouri
River Valley. This cool, dry air mass associated with the high
pressure area, will lead to well below normal low temperatures
this morning, ranging from the lower 40s in northeastern MO to
the upper 40s in east central KS. With high pressure sitting
roughly over the area today, we`ll see dry conditions with
temperatures ranging from the lower 70s in northeastern MO to
the upper 70s over east central KS and west central MO.
The embedded shortwave moving across CO will slowly track eastward
into the Central Plains Sunday night into Monday morning. Models
continue to show modest moisture transport ahead of this shortwave
and by Monday afternoon, scattered showers look possible over
northeastern KS and northwestern MO. CAPE remains very limited but
there are several models showing several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE
across our northwestern zones. So can`t rule out a few thunderstorms
as well. This area of precipitation slowly shifts east with the
eastward progression of the shortwave trough. However, moisture
decreases in the low and mid-levels with eastward extent. So the
best chances for precipitation will be along and west of line from
Butler, MO to Kirksville, MO. Ensemble guidance shows probabilities
for at least 0.1" of rain for the 24-hour period ending 7 PM Tuesday
ranging from 15-25% along this line with increasing probabilities to
the northwest. Looking at 0.25" for the same time range,
probabilities quickly diminish with only a 10-20% chance from the KC
area to Trenton, with higher probabilities near 50% in far
northwestern MO.
As that shortwave shifts east of the area, upper-level ridging
strengthens and spreads eastward into the middle of the country.
This pattern will support above normal temperatures with highs
climbing into the middle 90s late in the week and into the weekend
for areas generally along and south of Interstate 70. Models have
trended a bit warmer with dewpoints and now has dewpoints
consistently in the low to mid 60s as the warmer air mass settles
over the region. This still isn`t enough to get heat index
values much warmer than the air temperatures but it`s not as dry
as it would be if we had dewpoints in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conds with clr skies are expected to prevail thru the pd.
Winds will be lgt and vrb thru the pd at MKC, STJ, and IXD.
Winds at MCI will be lgt and vrb thru 14Z before becmg SE around
7kts before becmg southerly around 5kts aft 17Z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion