Concho, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS64 KOUN 020401
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist through most of the week.
-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late
   Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Lingering clouds continue across western and central Oklahoma from
this morning`s showers and virga. No further precipitation is
expected. Highs today will approach 90 in the Oklahoma portion of
our area and exceed 90 in the Texas portion of our area. A dramatic
expansion of the subtropical ridge will occur tonight. The ridging
argues for a mostly quiet/dry night with warm lows in the low 60s. A
possible exception is closer to the trough in north central
Oklahoma, where there is a weak CAM signal for elevated showers
again.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Large-scale ridging will continue to completely dominate the eastern
2/3 of the US on Thursday and Friday. That will make the first few
days of October continue to feel much less like October and much
more like summer. Not seeing a coherent signal for any precipitation
during the short-term period, with highs again sitting around 90
both days. The most noticeable sensible weather outside of the
warmth will be the breeze, especially near the 100th meridian. Seems
reasonable to assume 10-15 knot winds in northwest Oklahoma Friday
with peak gusts getting over 20 knots.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Model guidance remains consistent in tracking a shortwave trough across
the Intermountain region and into the central and northern Plains
Saturday into early Sunday. With better forcing remaining north,
rain and storm chances will remain low (less than 20 percent)
across northern Oklahoma. However, this system may push a cold
front into or close to northern Oklahoma by late Sunday into early
Monday morning. This would bring a better chance of precipitation
to northern parts of Oklahoma. Models diverge by early next week
with the strength and position of a mid-level ridge. Regardless,
there still appears to be a low chance (20%) of showers/storms
across mainly southeast Oklahoma and western and northern Oklahoma
Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions and generally light south/southeasterly winds are
expected. A few showers and a storm have recently developed east
of KWWR. This activity is not anticipated to reach other TAF
locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  65  89  65 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         90  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  63  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           88  63  91  64 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  63  90  64 /   0  20  20   0
Durant OK         87  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion