Conde, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

553
FXUS63 KABR 061728
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees below normal today.
- Patchy frost is expected in cloud free areas along the Missouri
River this morning. Patchy frost is again possible tonight into
early Sunday morning over more of the region as overnight lows dip
into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Patchy frost remains a concern overnight into Sunday morning. The
ongoing forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The frost advisory remains in place across central SD early this
morning. However, a deck of mid level stratus is expanding over the
region and slowly moving southeast between the Missouri and James
rivers. Temperatures have climbed back into the 40s under the
clouds. Areas without cloud cover have fallen as low as 35 degrees
so far.
With high pressure expanding over the eastern forecast area today
into tonight, the stage will be set for overnight temps in the 30s
again tonight into Sunday morning. Guidance, even 10th to 25th
percentile ensembles, remains above freezing but with a good portion
of the area around 35 to 38 degrees. Will leave it to the day shift
to toss out another advisory as needed after another model run.
Drier mid level air and no vort lobes in the exiting upper trough
should leave clear skies. Light winds at the surface under the high
also help to create the perfect radiational cooling set up.
The high keeps the region dry through Sunday even as it exits into
Iowa by Sunday afternoon. Southerly return flow develops Sunday, as
well, with gusts to 25 mph across central SD. Temperatures will
climb closer to normal Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge begins to
translate farther east and waa creeps in.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Sunday night the incoming upper level ridge is parked over the
Rockies putting us in northwesterly flow aloft. This will continue
through the daylight hours of Tuesday before the ridge starts to
move east and into our area. The ridge axis looks to cross our area
during the day Wednesday transitioning us to southerly winds. This
will remain in place through at least Friday afternoon. Models show
a trough moving in from the west but the time of its arrival varies,
as does its strength.
The beginning of the period is expected to be mostly dry. Monday,
far eastern portions of the forecast area have a slight chance of
some showers as a shortwave moves along the low level trough.
Starting Wednesday, we see a return of the humidity, starting with
some low level Gulf moisture brought up by southerly winds. This
will also bring back some storm chances. It is hard to say for sure
right now, but we could get an environment supportive of severe
storms during the later half of the work week. With the incoming
ridge, we get a push of WAA for the start of the work week which
will bring our high temperatures back up to slightly above average.
This will also bring overnight lows back up into the 50s. HRRR smoke
only hits the very beginning of the long term period but it is
showing a plume of smoke heading into the region from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
Less than 20% of model guidance does show fog near/south of ATY
around daybreak Sunday. We will leave this out of the forecast for
now, but monitor the latest trends for a possible addition to
later TAF issuances.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion