124 FXUS61 KCLE 081721 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 121 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Cool Canadian high pressure controls the weather through Friday night. Weak low pressure works its way into the area Saturday through early Sunday. High pressure influences return early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front is now southeast of the CWA and the associated upper level trough axis will be exiting to the east later this morning and early afternoon. First, for the immediate post frontal environment today, there could be a small amount of elevated but limited low level instability which should result in a cumulus field that will try to put out a sprinkle or two here and there. The low level RH is questionable, however. Outside of that, the forecast reverts to dry into the foreseeable future.
Winds ease into tonight, and with dewpoints falling into the 30s, temperatures should be able to radiate fairly efficiently. It is not a perfect setup, however. First, in the 925mb ENE flow, some low stratus formation generally along the lakeshore and into the some of the inland counties off the western basin of Lake Erie. Also, winds may hang on to 5kts or so mainly in the southern zones of the CWA, which will keep the cooling under control and also inhibit frost formation. This wind forecast will be the most important aspect to the frost question for tonight and will need to be re-evaluated today, as just a couple degree decrease in the velocity at the surface could change the temps and forecast significantly from a frost standpoint. For tonight and this issuance, NW PA and the first tier of counties into NE OH have the best chance to frost where the wind should be 3kts or less and temperatures in the low to mid 30s should be achievable. So will go with a Frost Advisory for those areas this morning for the tonight period, leaving it expandable westward if needed later today. Lakeshore counties are not at risk for more than isolated frost. Daytime temperatures today and Thursday will be upper 50s to mid 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday night presents a significantly better chance for widespread frost CWA-wide away from the lakeshore, and likely freezes for some locations where radiational cooling is most efficient in the rural/valley/outlying areas from NW PA southwestward towards Wayne/Ashland counties. This will be the coldest night of this Fall season so far, and do not expect winds or clouds to be any sort of inhibiting factor, unlike the tonight period. This is all due to cool Canadian high pressure moving from southern Ontario to the New England coast. Isolated showers return to Lake Erie and the northern CWA Saturday with a compact closed upper low dropping into the southern Great Lakes with an accompanying filling surface low. Temperatures modify to the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A coastal low pressure system may engage with the short term period closed low that dives towards the Carolina coast Sunday into Monday. Will need to watch these interactions and to what, if any westward extent of their effects reach our CWA. Otherwise, upper ridging wedges back into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into early next week, which should translate to continued gradual warming. After early Sunday from the exiting upper low, the long term forecast is dry.
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.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, NW`erly flow persists over northern OH and NW PA as a ridge builds from the north-central United States and eventually the western Great Lakes through 18Z/Thurs. Simultaneously, a surface ridge continues to impact our region as the parent high pressure center wobbles E`ward from the northwestern Great Lakes toward southeastern ON. Our regional surface winds veer gradually from NW`erly to N`erly to NE`erly through the TAF period. Surface wind speeds will vary between about 5 and 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times, especially until ~23Z/Wed.
Widespread VFR and fair weather are expected through the TAF period. Scattered lake-effect stratocumuli are expected over and downwind of Lake Erie through 18Z/Thurs. The evolution of mean low-level flow should allow the stratocumuli to stream generally S`ward from the lake through ~03Z/Thurs and then stream generally SW`ward from the lake through 18Z/Thurs. Cumuli, primarily scattered in coverage, are expected until ~23Z/Wed and after ~14Z/Thurs. All of these low-level clouds are expected to have bases near 4kft AGL.
Outlook...Mainly VFR and dry weather are expected through this Monday. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible this Friday night through Monday morning.
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.MARINE... As high pressure begins to build east across Lake Erie, winds today will remain elevated at 15-25 knots with the strongest winds across the central basin from the north. This onshore flow will result in waves building to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern basins. These conditions are expected to persist through today and into the first half of tonight before high pressure allows winds to become northeasterly at 10-15 knots and wave heights to fall to 1-3 feet. This high pressure will remain dominant over the are through Friday before a weak low pressure system moves east across Lake Erie on Saturday. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will back behind the low to become northwesterly briefly. High pressure will return late Saturday into Sunday and persist into early next week. Aside from the ongoing Small Craft Advisories, there are no additional marine headlines expected over the next week.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ014-023- 033. PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>147. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ148- 149.
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SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...04
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion