Conrath, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS63 KMPX 220632
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
132 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small
  chance for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.
- Lingering shower chances Monday, and possibly Tuesday across
  the south and east.
- Rest of the week, drying out with above normal temperatures of
  highs the mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Today... Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper
level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. Upper level
ascent ahead of this PV anomaly, was leading to clouds and some
rain showers. For the rest of today, expect isolated rain
showers mainly along and north of I-94 from this feature.
Farther south, there was an area of clouds and showers across
southeast Minnesota, and these were tied to an area of low level
Theta_E advection, This will be the focus for showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon through the late evening. Forecast
soundings for later today show low LCLs, a veered hodograph, and
around 1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE. The current thinking is the
uncapped nature of the environment should lead to several
thunderstorms, and the lack of strong deep layer shear means the
updrafts will be short-lived and relatively weak.
However, there is a scenario where a couple storms are able to
tap into the marginal shear, and remain somewhat isolated. If
this were the case, could see a potential for a brief tornado,
and perhaps some large hail. SPC has introduced a 2 percent
tornado chance for this reason.
Later this evening, storms will become more elevated as we lose
the surface heating. This will bring an end to the tornado
threat, but some hail is possible for a few hours past sunset.
In summary, the severe weather threat is low, which is why there
is only a Marginal Risk, but a few of the stronger storms could
pose a tornado and/or hail threat.
Monday and Tuesday... The upper level trough bringing the
chances for rain will become more positively tilted and shear
out, but this will be a slow process. A few areas of positive
vorticity will rotate across the Upper Midwest, and could bring
lingering small chances for a light rain showers mainly to the
south along I-90, and along/east of I-35.
By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases. Upper level
subsidence is reflected in increasing surface pressure, so
expect more sun than clouds, with light winds expected through
the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 70s, with dewpoints in
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Precipitation shield has by-and-large shifted into far eastern
MN and western WI, though a few very sparse returns are still
showing up on KMPX radar in central MN. Overall, the
precipitation will continue to shift east and diminish, leaving
making low stratus/fog in its wake for southern-eastern MN and
western WI through sunrise. Meanwhile, western MN shows more
signs of clearing but this may lead to IFR-or-worse fog prior to
and through sunrise, especially if/when winds drop off.
Conditions will slowly move towards VFR on the MN side through
the day while degraded conditions will be prolonged on the WI
side. There is a small chance that convection re-develops in far
southern MN but all indications are at this point that
additional precip development will remain south of MKT so,
beyond the morning precip, no additional precipitation is
expected at any TAF site.
KMSP...Little to no additional precipitation is expected during
this TAF cycle, but did run with a VCSH mention owing to the
sparse returns west of MSP. Still expecting MVFR ceilings to
develop prior to sunrise, with good potential for IFR ceilings
during the morning push, followed by slow-but-steady improvement
as the day progresses.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion