Conrath, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

916
FXUS63 KMPX 211804
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
104 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, a small chance
for strong/severe storms mainly in southern MN.
- Lingering shower chances Monday, and possibly Tuesday across the
south and east.
- Rest of the week, drying out with above normal temperatures of
  highs the mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Today... Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper
level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. Upper level ascent
ahead of this PV anomaly, was leading to clouds and some rain
showers. For the rest of today, expect isolated rain showers mainly
along and north of I-94 from this feature.
Farther south, there was an area of clouds and showers across
southeast Minnesota, and these were tied to an area of low level
Theta_E advection, This will be the focus for showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon through the late evening. Forecast
soundings for later today show low LCLs, a veered hodograph, and
around 1500 J/kg of uncapped CAPE. The current thinking is the
uncapped nature of the environment should lead to several
thunderstorms, and the lack of strong deep layer shear means the
updrafts will be short-lived and relatively weak.
However, there is a scenario where a couple storms are able to tap
into the marginal shear, and remain somewhat isolated. If this were
the case, could see a potential for a brief tornado, and perhaps
some large hail. SPC has introduced a 2 percent tornado chance for
this reason.
Later this evening, storms will become more elevated as we lose the
surface heating. This will bring an end to the tornado threat, but
some hail is possible for a few hours past sunset. In summary, the
severe weather threat is low, which is why there is only a Marginal
Risk, but a few of the stronger storms could pose a tornado and/or
hail threat.
Monday and Tuesday... The upper level trough bringing the chances
for rain will become more positively tilted and shear out, but this
will be a slow process. A few areas of positive vorticity will
rotate across the Upper Midwest, and could bring lingering small
chances for a light rain showers mainly to the south along I-90, and
along/east of I-35.
By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases. Upper level
subsidence is reflected in increasing surface pressure, so expect
more sun than clouds, with light winds expected through the weekend.
Temperatures will be in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Areas of sct to bkn low to mid-level cu cover most sites this
afternoon. We have already began to see areas of light SHRA
develop near STC over to EAU which have developed a little
faster than what forecast guidance anticipated. Thus introduced
tempo groups for SHRA at STC, and EAU for the next couple of
hours. Showers and iso areas of TSRA are expected to become
more widespread across all sites except for STC, and AXN
starting later this afternoon mostly after 22/23z timeframe then
progressing from west to east. Confidence lacks on direct
impacts at each site so continued with prob30 TSRA mentions but
tried to shrink the timing window a bit. Once rain passes, fog
is expected to develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning
with IFR to LIFR visibilities likely across our western most
sites. Southwest winds will remain light becoming variable
tonight through the rest of the period as the center of a
surface low passes overhead Monday.
KMSP...Best timing for precip looks to range between 00z to 04z this
evening. A few pockets of thunder are possible thus changed
previously mentioned SHRA to TSRA. Cigs will decrease to near MVFR
late tonight into tomorrow morning. There is a potential IFR
cigs do occur but lacked confidence with duration thus, used sub
1000kft sct cigs for now.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE-WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU-FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dunleavy

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion