Converse-Huff Cemetery, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS61 KILN 301031
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
631 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to continued dry and warm conditions through
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A large high pressure persists across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region, continuing to provide dry conditions. A deep ridge
also remains in place, supplying above normal temperatures once again
this afternoon. Some increase in upper level clouds are expected
this morning across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky with abundant
sunshine elsewhere. With the high pressure to the north and low
pressure to the southeast, northeasterly winds are noticeable this
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will once again decrease into the late evening and overnight
hours, but more exposed locations likely see a persistent northeast
wind. These winds will increase once again Wednesday afternoon as the
strong high pressure descends into southeast Canada. The winds are
bringing in air originating from a cooler air mass, allowing for high
temperatures to be slightly cooler than previous days. They are
still above normal, but likely limited to the upper 70s and lower
80s. Throughout the day, moisture aloft supports increasing cirrus
from the west. This is typically a sign of approaching rainfall, but
the dry air in place simply won`t support it.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level high settles over the CWA Thursday. On Friday, it moves
slowly sse, becomes more diffuse and is eventually integrated into a
broad ridge over the eastern conus. On Sunday, the ridge begins to
amplify and lays out along the East Coast by Sun night. This places
Ohio Valley and CWA in sw flow, in which the GFS sparks convection
due primarily to vorticity maxima in the mean flow. This is not
unreasonable and is consistent with earlier GFS runs, but timing and
placing vort maxima outside of any apparent s/w in the longer range
forecast is difficult. Earlier and current guidance has overcome this
wetter solution through the sheer volume of dry members incorporated
in the final product. That being said, Tues has the first elevated
chance of precip in the forecast with buy in from a few more model
members - if you consider 20% elevated.
At the surface, high pressure axis moves east on Thurs and becomes
oriented along the Appalachians, with a return to weak sly flow in
the Ohio Valley. The high then moves offshore but a trailing ridge to
the west lies south of the CWA, extending further wwd into Arkansas
Thurs night, lingering with a w-e orientation through Sun night and
breaking down on Mon.
Dry will continue to be the norm with the next inkling of precip Mon
or Tue. Highs near 80 Thurs and Tues will sandwich lower 80s during
the interim period. The coolest lows start the forecast in the upper
40s/low 50s Wed night and steadily warm through Mon night when min
temps will be uniformly closer to 60.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes from the 06Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR conditions, with
KLUK the exception due to some river valley fog.
Otherwise, scattered afternoon cumulus and some upper level clouds
are expected. Winds are out of the northeast today with the highest
winds around 10 knots. Winds decrease into the evening hours, but
remain out of the north-northeast.
Northeast winds increase again Wednesday afternoon with upper level
clouds moving in from the west.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion