Conway Springs, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

678
FXUS63 KICT 151050
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
550 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms today through
  Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon-early evening hours.
  Isolated strong to marginally severe storm possible. Most
  locations will remain storm-free.
- Unsettled weather pattern late Tuesday night through the
  weekend, with off-and-on rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  expected. Locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding
  concerns possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Will likely see a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Kansas
today through Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as a moist/unstable and uncapped airmass remains in
place across the region, and large scale ascent persists ahead of an
upper trough digging over the western CONUS. Most locations will
remain dry. Widespread severe weather is unlikely given rather weak
deep layer shear, although moderate to strong instability may
support isolated instances of small hail, 50-60 mph winds, and heavy
rainfall.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A deep upper trough
wobbling slowly east-southeast through Mid-America will support off-
and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region
late Tuesday night through at least Friday, although some of the
latest guidance supports rain chances continuing through the
weekend. While an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm or two is
possible throughout this time period, most activity should remain
below severe levels, although locally heavy rainfall and potential
flooding concerns are possible. Stay tuned as refine forecast
details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today and Tuesday, with
forecast highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. From Wednesday through
next weekend, increased precipitation chances and decreasing
atmospheric thickness will likely support a modest cool down, with
many locations in the 70s to low 80s for daytime highs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Thinking anytime between about midday today through this evening
there will be a few isolated hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms
across central and eastern Kansas, within a continued moist and
unstable airmass ahead of an upper trough continuing to dig over
the western CONUS. Thinking activity will be fairly isolated,
with point probabilities below 20 percent, so decided to not
include mention in the 12z TAFs. However, will continue to
monitor radar and satellite trends through the day and make
timely amendments if needed. Isolated occurrences of strong wind
gusts, small hail, and heavy rain may accompany the strongest
storms.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion