Conway, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

326
FXUS61 KBOX 071803
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
203 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will come to an end by this evening, as a cold front
heads out to sea. Dry weather should prevail much of this week
along with another taste of fall like temperatures, as high
pressure remains over New England, but a coastal low pressure
system could bring a few showers to the South Coast, Cape Cod,
and the Islands Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Rain ends from west to east through this evening.
Although heavier rain from this morning has moved through, there
is still a large area of mostly light rain from southern New
England down to mid Atlantic coast, all ahead of the upper
trough over eastern Great Lakes. We definitely received some
much needed rainfall between the storms yesterday and rainfall
that began overnight, with many areas picking up 1"+ aside from
south coastal areas (including Cape Cod/Islands) which have yet
to get into steadier rainfall.
This trough will push through New England this evening, which
finally kicks the surface front farther offshore, and allows
rain to slowly end from west to east. Drier air arrives behind
trough tonight which will bring clearing skies. Winds will be
fairly light which could promote patchy valley fog, but coverage
should be limited given drier airmass moving in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry weather with (another) taste of fall.
High pressure builds into New England Mon and Tue providing dry
weather and temperatures just below average for early
September. Weak pressure gradient will favor coastal sea
breezes both days, and the combination of clear skies and light
winds at night will allow for good radiational cooling
conditions Mon night, where some of the coolest spots could dip
down into lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry weather prevails into next weekend.
* Few showers may reach South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands
  Wednesday-Thursday from offshore coastal low.
Upper level pattern will continue to feature troughiness over
eastern part of country as fairly strong ridging develops over
northern Plains. This will favor dry weather overall with near
or slightly below normal temperatures into next weekend,
although it does look like we`ll see a brief warmup Thu.
One thing we are watching is a southern stream shortwave
Wednesday into Thursday which will drive a coastal low offshore.
Question is how close will this system track and how far inland
any showers will reach, which is dependent on location of
subtropical ridge offshore but moreso on strength and position
of upper trough pushing through SE Canada according to ensemble
clusters. Ensembles are actually in good agreement showing
higher chances toward immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and
Islands but forecast will allow for a little wiggle room and
have some mention of showers as far north as Providence to
Plymouth corridor. Even if we see a more northward trend, this
is not expected to be very impactful, just some (still) needed
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z Update: High confidence.
Rain slowly exits to coast through early this evening with
IFR/MVFR giving way to VFR ceilings. Winds are a bit tricky,
mainly N/NE backing to NW, but it`s possible winds back even
more to W or SW late this afternoon near coast before veering
back to NW tonight. Clearing works in later tonight with VFR
through Mon night and coastal sea breezes Mon afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence. Winds may back to SW late this
afternoon but W/NW most likely. Timing of trends may be off by
an hour or two.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence this week. Winds and seas expected to remain
below SCA but seas could reach 5 ft on south coastal waters Wed
into Thu.
Cold front pushing offshore could bring some brief 20-25kt NW
winds gusts through late afternoon, otherwise high pressure
building into New England Mon and Tue will maintain light W/NW
winds with near shore sea breezes both days.
We are watching Wed/Thu timeframe for a coastal low passing
offshore from mid Atlantic. System is not expected to be overly
strong, so winds should stay below 25kt, but seas could reach
SCA on open south coastal waters and bring showers/fog. High
pressure follows for later this week and into next weekend.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Thursday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion