Conway, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

098
FXUS61 KAKQ 091859
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds northeast of the region through Wednesday
as a trough lingers offshore of the Carolinas, keeping breezy
conditions closer to the coast. Another area of high pressure
builds in later this week behind a dry cold front. Below average
temperatures are expected through Thursday, trending closer to
normal by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- increasing chances of light rain along the coast tonight into
Wednesday morning as low pressure slides northeast along the coast.
Current satellite imagery shows a well defined areas of clouds along
and west of a stalled frontal boundary along the SE US coast.  With
high pressure, north of the area centered near Eastern Maine,
stretching down the eastern seaboard a strong NE flow has developed.
The combination of the stalled front and NE flow has led to an
increase in clouds along the coast and these clouds have spread more
inland as a weak shortwave trough rides along the front.  So far the
rain has remained offshore.  Models continue to suggest that an area
of low pressure will form along this stalled front off the Carolina
coast this evening through the overnight hours.  The NAM12 continues
to appear to wrap the moisture well to far inland and without a
stronger trough aloft, don`t think there is enough support for that
type of system.  Have leaned more toward the GFS and HRRR to keep
the rain along the coast.  So raised the chances for rain to about
60% along the coast and held onto a slight chance back to the I-95
corridor.  Think the pcpn will be light overall, but could be
persistent (light rain/drizzle) for the overnight hours. Overall
expect rainfall amounts to be 0.50 or less for most areas. Some high
res models try to show some much higher amounts, but without
convection, have a hard time seeing those totals being realized.
Temperatures should remain mild with overnight lows generally in the
upper 50s west to upper 60s east with the clouds in place.
Conditions should begin to slowly improve through the day on
Wednesday as the weak low along the front continues to move NE away
from the coast.  The NE flow continues for most of the day with a
turn more northerly to northwesterly late in the day.  This will
keep the clouds around along the coast much of the day with a
gradual clearing from west to east during the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Dry and trending warmer for Thursday through Friday.
High pressure is expected to dominate the weather from New England
to the Gulf Coast through this time period.  This will continue the
dry weather and with the return of more sunshine, expect
temperatures to climb back to more seasonable levels with readings
in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday to the low to mid 80s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Dry, partly-mostly sunny, with seasonable temperatures this
weekend.
The weekend should be rather pleasant with temperatures near normal.
The sfc high pressure to the north strengthens, remaining in control
through the weekend. This will result in dry weather and seasonable
temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s through Monday.  Models
beginning to advertise a backdoor cold front moving into the area
early next week.  Right now the timing looks like Monday afternoon
or evening with cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday.  But with
limited moisture, not anticipating much chance for rain with the
backdoor front.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure is centered NE of the region with a trough offshore
that continues to bring strong NE winds to coastal terminals with
gusts to ~25 kt today at ORF/ECG, and 20-25 kt at SBY/PHF. Clouds
continue to spread inland areas as far W as FVX with lower to MVFR
levels along the coast. As a area of low pressure develops along the
coastal front and slides northward tonight, expect the ceilings to
drop to IFR levels with some light rain possible for
ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY.  Without a strong upper trough to pull the low
pressure area farther west, think RIC will remain MVFR.
The area of low pressure will slowly pull NE away from the area on
Wednesday with a gradual weakening of the NE flow.  But it will take
some time for the clouds to abate and ceiling to lift.  Do think by
the afternoon hours some improvement is likely, but will likely
still be mvfr levels in the late afternoon along the coast.
Outlook: MVFR conditions are possible Wed afternoon into Wednesday
night. Otherwise, improving conditions on Thursday with dry WX and
VFR for all terminals through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of local waters.
- Seas build to 6-9 ft today with a High Risk of rip currents at
  all area beaches.
- Another round of SCAs is likely Friday into next weekend.
Latest sfc analysis depicts a ~1029 mb area of high pressure
centered over New England with a coastal front off the Southeast
coast and a weak surface low along it. This has resulted in a tight
pressure gradient with NE winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
across the local waters. High pressure gradually moves E through mid
week with a weak surface low gradually moving NNE along the coastal
front well offshore. As such, the pressure gradient will remain in
place with NE winds averaging 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
continuing through this evening, gradually becoming N and
diminishing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tonight through
Wed evening. As such, SCAs remain in effect for all local waters
today with SCAs ending at 6 AM Wed for the upper rivers, 4 PM
Wed for the upper Ches Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck
Sound, 7 PM WEd for the middle Bay, 10 PM Wed for the Lower Bay,
4 AM Thu for the mouth of the Bay (due to elevated waves), and
6 AM Thu for the coastal waters. Will note that SCAs for the S
coastal waters may need to be extended through Thu if seas
remain elevated. Additionally, while frequent gusts up to 35 kt
are not expected, a few gusts up to 35 kt are possible across
the coastal waters this afternoon. However, wind probs for 34 kt
gusts were only 35-40 percent for a few hours. As such, have
opted to hold off on any Gale Warnings at this time with an SMW
possible if a brief period of 34 kt gusts develops.
Seas early this morning were 4-6 ft across the N coastal waters and
6-9 ft across the S coastal waters. Seas build to 7-9 ft across all
of the coastal waters by late this afternoon into this evening
before gradually subsiding tonight into Thu. Will note that it is
possible for peak wave heights to be higher (up to 9-10 ft) across
the NC coastal waters today with nearshore waves up to around 8 ft.
As such, will need to closely monitor trends today to see if a High
Surf Advisory may be warranted. However, the current thinking is
that the highest seas will remain offshore with generally sub 8 ft
seas along the beaches. Seas of 4-5 ft may linger across NE NC
through Thu, however, will keep the current end time of the SCAs for
the coastal waters at 6 AM Thu for now across all of the coastal
waters.
The next area of high pressure off to our W looks to build in Thu,
enough to relax the pressure to some extent with mainly sub-SCA
conditions expected (though winds stay elevated at 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt). Onshore northeast winds increase again Fri into
next weekend with an additional SCAs likely needed, especially for
the lower Ches Bay and S coastal waters.
Rip Currents: A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all beaches
through Wednesday, potentially easing some by Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 440 AM EDT Tuesday...
A prolonged period of onshore flow and high seas offshore will
lead to increasing water levels over the next several tide
cycles. Widespread nuisance to minor flooding is expected across
NE NC, locations along the lower Ches Bay, and areas along the
tidal Rappahannock, York, and James Rivers with the next
several high tide cycles beginning this morning and continuing
through at least Wednesday afternoon`s high tide. As such, have
expanded Coastal Flood Advisories across these areas and have
extended them through Wednesday afternoon. The exception is the
Atlantic coast of the OBX from srn VA Beach down to Duck where
only this morning`s high tide is expected to reach minor flood
stage. Farther north, departures will take longer to increase,
but are forecast to slowly rise with the potential for seeing
minor flooding by Wednesday afternoon. As such, have opted to
hold off an Coastal Flood Advisories at this time for the upper
Ches Bay as well as the MD beaches. Water levels remain elevated
with prolonged onshore flow through the end of the week, though
departures likely drop off a bit by Thursday. Will note that
additional nuisance to minor coastal flooding is possible
through Thursday for portions of the area, however, confidence
is lower than for today into Wednesday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095-097-
     098-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082>084-
     089-090-093-096-100-518-520-523-524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-633-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/LKB
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS/LKB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion