955 FXUS63 KGRR 011942 AFDGRRArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 342 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through the Weekend
- Chance of Rain Early Next Week
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry through the Weekend
Dry easterly flow goes southeast then south into the weekend with modest moisture return by early next week. Upper ridging slowly flattens over the next few days but temperatures return to the 80s as the sfc high moves east and 850 mb temps are again around 15C Friday through Sunday. A western CONUS trough advances east by early next week.
- Chance of Rain Early Next Week
As the upper trough advances, a cold front will provide enough low level convergence for some showers to move in late Monday, but instability is limited and thunder chances appear to be low. The front should move through by late Tuesday with surface high pressure building in for Wednesday. Thursday morning could see temperatures in the 30s with some frost/freeze conditions.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR is likely with 6-12 knot winds from the east-northeast becoming more from the southeast tomorrow. About 20 knots of wind shear between 1,000 feet and ground will be present again tonight 03 to 12 Z, as winds at 1,000 feet should be around 25 knots from 120 degrees.
Similar to last night, moisture below 1,000 feet will flow in off Lake Erie, and some of the high res models are bringing that layer very close to saturation and cloud development. However, IFR late tonight is low confidence given that it did not materialize last night.
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.MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
10 to 20 knot winds from the southeast tonight will build larger waves away from the nearshore out into the open lake. Winds turning from the south later in the week will make 2 to 4 footers more common north of Grand Haven for Friday and Saturday. A small craft advisory may be needed for Big and Little Sable Points on Saturday and north of Holland on Sunday.
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.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None.
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DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...CAS MARINE...CAS
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion