Corinth, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

873
FXUS63 KBIS 110250
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
950 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the weekend, with
  highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the west and
  central Thursday afternoon and evening.
- High chances for rain across the western half of the state
  this weekend, with medium chances for one half to one inch of
  accumulation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Quiet weather is found over western and central North Dakota at
the time of this late evening update. The band of weak
reflectivities previously found across the north has dissipated
without dropping much if any precipitation. Downstream of the
forecast area, showers and thunderstorms have developing along a
NNW to SSE orientated pseudo-stationary boundary. These showers
and storms are expected to slowly make their way into our
western counties through the early overnight period. With this
update, have blended in some of the latest model guidance into
the PoPs, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A thin band of weak reflectivities organized along a inverted
surface trough linger over northwestern and portions of
northcentral North Dakota at the time of this early evening
update. Dry near surface conditions, with dewpoint depressions
around 30 degrees or greater are likely limiting precipitation
from this band, though we have heard limited reports of
sprinkles reaching the surface. Update wise, have blended in the
latest radar and model trends for PoPs tonight through Thursday
morning. Otherwise breezy southeast winds, with speeds up to 20
MPH and gusts around 30 to 35 MPH, continue at this time. While
winds will somewhat diminish overnight, a developing LLJ will
help keep speeds around 10 MPH overnight and thus limit fog
potential at this time. Other than the adjustments mentioned
above, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Currently a ridge axis is slowly moving east through the state.
At the time of this writing it is located in eastern North
Dakota, with southwest flow entering the state from the west.
The positive vorticity advection across the state is already
apparent when looking at satellite. There are mid and upper
level clouds in western North Dakota. At the surface the low
pressure system sits in southeast Montana, with a stationary
front stretched down through South Dakota. Over the next 24
hours the whole system will slide east, under the southwest flow
aloft. The pressure gradient will tighten, along with the warm
front across the south and east Thursday, leading to another day
of breezy winds.
Starting Thursday afternoon when the diurnal heating and warm
front enter the state, isolated severe storms are possible
through the evening. SPC has a marginal risk across most of
North Dakota, except the southeast. Most models agree that the
MUCAPE will be around 1700 J/kg and the shear around 30kts.
Model soundings also agree that the failure point will be a
slight capping layer where the thermal ridge is sitting, around
850mb. With surface temperatures forecast around 90 in the west
and lift from the warm front and low, it is possible for this
cap to break. The expected hazards if storms get going will be
ping pong sized hail and 60mph winds. The CAMs mostly have
isolated or clusters of storms so hail would seem to be more
likely than wind. The severe threat could continue into the
early part of the night if a strengthening low level jet kicks
in on the east side of the low.
Friday through the weekend that low pressure system and the
southwest flow will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms daily. High temperatures will remain above
average. Sunday an upper low could form off the Rockies and move
into the Northern Plains. This will continue the chances for
showers and thunderstorms through early next week. The QPF for
the weekend could be over 1 inch, especially in the west. In
central and eastern North Dakota, QPF values look to be less
than 1 inch. Temperatures next week could be below or around
average for this time in September.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility is found at all terminals
throughout the 00Z TAF period. Isolated virga in northwestern
North Dakota is expected to cross over north central North
Dakota later this evening. Later this evening, a developing low
level jet will induce wind shear across portions of western and
south central North Dakota, including over the terminals of
KXWA, KDIK, and KBIS. Wind shear is expected to diminish through
the early to mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move into western and north central North Dakota
late tonight through much of the TAF period, with the highest
confidence found across the north. Have included PRO30 groups
for -SHRA at KXWA, and KDIK, and prevailing -SHRA at KMOT with
this update. Confidence in thunder is highest over the north
central, and thus have included a PROB30 groups for -TSRA at
KMOT late tomorrow morning with this update. Breezy southeast
winds will somewhat diminish this evening, through will remain
gusty overnight. More moderate southeast winds, with speeds up
to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots are then expected late
Thursday morning through the afternoon. Where thunderstorms do
develop, gusty and erratic winds are anticipated.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Adam

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion