Cornish, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS63 KDLH 150915
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
415 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog and low ceilings this morning, especially around the
  Twin Ports, and both the North and South Shores, will slowly
  lift through the morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
  effect until 9AM.
- Scattered shower and storm chances return today, with on- and-
  off shower/storm chances through the rest of the week into
  next weekend.
- Warm temperatures through Wednesday, with a return to more
  normal temperatures for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
With continued east to southeast flow across western Lake
Superior, low clouds and fog have formed again overnight, with
low clouds spreading inland at the lead of the lake and
along the North Shore. Conditions favor fog along the South
Shore. Given the reductions in visibilities due to fog and low
ceilings, have expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to include
Ashland and Bayfield counties in northwest Wisconsin, and
central St. Louis County in Minnesota. Much like the last few
days, conditions will be slow to improve this morning, with low
clouds lingering the longest at the head of the lake.
A shortwave is rotating northward through the Plains this
morning, pulling a band of high level clouds northward through
the Mississippi River Valley. Not much on radar yet with this
system, but as the shortwave approaches the area from the
southwest later this morning, an increasing in low level jet
and continued moisture advection into the Northland will allow
for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. A cap
could limit development through the morning, until daytime
heating erodes the cap and burns off the stabilizing low clouds
across the area. For these reasons, there is some uncertainty
as to where a band of north to south oriented convection
develops. An elevated warm front arrives around mid day, and
this could be the "lift" needed for convection to develop.
The short wave will move into southern Canada tonight, and drag
a cold front into the area Tuesday, but drier air on the south
side of the shortwave and a low level cap will limit any
showers/storms Tuesday. The cold front will push the moist
airmass southward with cooler air returning to the area as high
pressure dives southward across Central Canada and becomes
centered to our north over Ontario. Cooler, easterly flow will
dominate the rest of the week.
Upper level features within a broader trough meander around the
northern Plains mid week, eventually organizing and pushing
eastward toward the Upper Midwest for the end of the week. This
will bring a return to rain chances and slightly warming
temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Low clouds and fog continue to impact areas along the shores of Lake
Superior and westward from the head of the lake. Expect LIFR/IFR
conditions at DLH and HIB overnight with slow improvement
through the morning Monday. Light fog has developed at BRD, and
there is some uncertainty on whether low clouds extend far
enough westward to impact BRD.
Winds will increase from the southeast Monday morning, with
gusts of 20-25kts possible. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are possible beginning early Monday morning near BRD,
with chances increasing by mid day and coverage expanding
eastward through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Dense Fog Advisories have been issued with fog persisting
through at least 10AM this morning. There will be a 20-30%
chance for some scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
early evening. Severe weather is not expected. Northeast winds
will be breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt, especially
in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore. Winds become
briefly southerly on Tuesday, light and variable Wednesday, then
northeasterly and breezy to finish the week. Hazardous
conditions for small craft may be possible late- week.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ019-020-
     037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion