Cos Cob, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS61 KOKX 100750
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass well to the south and east through
tonight. A cold front will move through late Thursday night,
with high pressure building in Friday through Saturday. The high
will pass offshore Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will
then likely slide through Sunday night, followed by Canadian
high pressure early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
An offshore frontal zone will be the focus for a wave of low
pressure to pass well to the southeast. As light offshore
returns on radar expand northward, chances for showers will
increase this morning especially across Long Island, NYC, and
coastal CT, then decrease as the wave pulls away this
afternoon. Low levels look stable on fcst soundings so have
removed mention of thunder. ENE winds with some gusts to 20-25
mph should back more to the NE this afternoon. Temps will be
limited by cloud cover and any precip, with highs in the upper
60s/lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual clearing should take place tonight as winds back N and
drier air filters in. Low temps will range from near 60 in NYC
to the upper 40s/lower 50s in outlying areas.
Under plenty of sunshine, Thu should be a warm day, with highs
in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Dry cold fropa takes place late Thu
night, with daytime temps on Fri only a few degrees less warm,
with mid/upper 70s for most places, and lower 70s for south
shore areas of ern Long Island/CT as flow there turns more
onshore in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes were made, with NBM guidance followed.
High pressure builds across the Northeast through Saturday and
weakens Sunday with a weak cold front moving through most likely
during Sunday night. Fcst still carries slight chance PoP into
Monday, but with ECMWF showing an upper low moving across there
could be more in the way of showers than is currently fcst (only
slight chance PoP). High temperatures will be in the 70s each
day, with lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s, and some upper
40s possible on clearer calmer night in outlying areas.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure moves along a front offshore through the TAF
period. High pressure will start to build in from the west late
in the TAF period.
Initial conditions VFR but with increasing chances of showers
for most terminals, MVFR stratus expected to developing heading
into daybreak. Chances of showers continue later on this morning
for most terminals and into the afternoon east of NYC terminals.
Some occasional visibility reductions to MVFR can be expected.
IFR will be possible east of NYC terminals. MVFR stratus
expected to linger through the day for most terminals and into
tonight east of NYC terminals.
Winds will be E-ENE initially into today and eventually become
more NE-N today into tonight. Wind speeds generally near 10 kt
with some coastal terminals near 15 kt for today. Gusts near 20
kt for most coastal terminals through much of today.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to refine timing of showers and MVFR, which
could vary a few hours from TAF.
Low chance of IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight: Low chance of MVFR/IFR stratus with otherwise
mainly VFR conditions.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR stratus at night with a
slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
ENE flow with gusts up to 25 kt also expected on the ocean
most of today, with seas building to 5-7 ft. SCA for the ocean
has been extended into Thu morning as latest guidance indicates
hazardous seas of 5+ ft should linger until at least then if
not into Thu afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E flow 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will help build an E
wind wave component to 5-7 ft at 7-8 seconds. This combination
should lead to a high rip current risk today. Given wind and
wave direction will be parallel to the shoreline, surf height is
expected to top out around 4-5 ft. Despite the wind becoming
more NE through the day today, the rip current risk will be high
given previously discussed conditions. With a more N flow on
Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected.
A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the back bay
locations of S Nassau, the tidal waters of Staten Island and NE
NJ, where departures should be well into minor flood. Statement
also issued for Jamaica Bay and SW Suffolk, and the north shore
of Nassau and western Suffolk, where water levels may touch
minor thresholds.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion