Cowles, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS65 KABQ 030737
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Isolated showers and storms will develop across western and
  north-central New Mexico this afternoon through Saturday.
- Breezy south to southwest winds today increase more Saturday,
  creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
- There is moderate to high confidence that wetter than normal
  weather will occur over portions of central and northern New
  Mexico next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Clear skies and light winds prevail around the Land of Enchantment
early this morning, but the Pacific storm system that will impact
the area today and Saturday is currently taking shape over The Great
Basin. This longwave trough will continue digging today and
increasing winds aloft will create a southerly breeze areawide today.
Modest divergence aloft will help isolated showers develop across
western NM this afternoon as well and these showers could mix down
some stronger winds to the sfc. DCAPE is generally sub 500 J/kg so
downburst wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are unlikely. Surface
heating could destabilize the atmosphere just enough to get a few
rumbles of thunder, but persistent storms are unlikely given the
marginal instability. Showers may persist past sundown in the high
terrain of northwestern NM since by then orographic lift will be
driving most precipitation. Since winds aloft will only be
intensifying overnight, the boundary layer will struggle to
decouple. While it won`t be very windy overnight, a light breeze
should hang on through the whole night. This light breeze could be
just enough to impact the first mass ascension at balloon fiesta. The
NBM currently shows a 40% of winds >12 mph at 7AM so it will
certainly be a close call.
After sunrise, winds will continue to trend stronger as the boundary
layer deepens. Saturday will be a bit windier than Friday, with
gusts of 30 to 50 mph commonplace around central and northern NM. A
weak Pacific cold front associated with the trough over the central
Rockies will quickly traverse New Mexico from west to east Saturday
afternoon, with a few showers in northern NM out ahead of it. Dry
west winds will quickly put an end to these showers as the Pacific
front moves through.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Cool dry air will settle into western and central valleys Sunday
morning in the wake of the aformentioned Pacific front.
Probabilistic guidance suggests there is a moderate chance (40-60%)
of a freeze along the San Juan River in far northwestern NM and a
low chance (~25%) in Taos. Temperatures should warm up nicely in the
afternoon however, especially in eastern NM where a downsloping
breeze could actually warm temps up a few degrees from Saturday`s
highs.
Models are starting to get into better agreement that a backdoor
front (associated with a northern plains trough) will push into
eastern NM on Monday. This surge of moisture combined with mid-level
moisture advected in from the south will result in increasing rain
chances in central and eastern areas Monday and moreso Tuesday.
Precipitation totals have notably trended up over the past couple of
NBM runs, particularly across eastern NM where there is now a 10%
chance widespread rain amounts of 1"+ of during the Monday through
Wednesday period. Instability remains a big question mark since
extensive cloud cover during the overnight period and throughout the
day could inhibit instability, keeping rain light and showery. All of
this cloud cover will help to keep temps down as well, with most
areas below average by Wednesday. After Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases significantly. While there will likely be a
longwave trough somewhere within the vicinity of the West Coast, its
depth and whether or not it will be near-stationary or progressive
is unclear. Furthermore, the potential tropical cyclone in the
eastern Pacific could further increase rainfall amounts in the week.
but ensemble guidance is generally drawing this deeper moisture into
Arizona, with New Mexico being on the fringes of the heavier
rainfall. The GEFS mean PWATs are now showing well-above normal
(150%+) PWATs from Tuesday all the way through the second week of
October so the wetter than normal pattern is expected to continue
beyond next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Southerly winds will increase tomorrow afternoon, with gusts of 20
to 30 kts commonplace around the region. Showers (and a few storms)
will likely develop across western NM after 20Z, intermittently
mixing stronger winds down to the sfc. Most showers will end after
02Z, but a few showers could persist later near the northwest high
terrain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Breezy south winds prevail areawide this afternoon, with isolated
showers and storms in western New Mexico. At least a light breeze
will likely hang out through the night as well thanks to an
approaching trough that will continue increasing winds aloft.
Saturday will be windier than Friday with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
commonplace. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions could
develop for a few hours in the northeast plains Saturday afternoon,
but very low ERCs suggest fuels are not primed to carry fire.
Drier conditions are expected Sunday, but a backdoor frontal passage
on Monday will likely increase the coverage of showers and storms
across at least eastern NM. Rain chances spread westward Tuesday and
Wednesday, but rainfall rates remain uncertain at this time. Near
average temperatures with breezy conditions will be favored mid to
late week as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  56  75  40 /  10  30  10   0
Dulce...........................  79  46  69  32 /  10  40  60   0
Cuba............................  77  50  73  39 /   5  10  10   0
Gallup..........................  79  50  72  34 /  10  10   0   0
El Morro........................  76  49  71  36 /  10  10   0   0
Grants..........................  79  49  76  37 /  10  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  79  50  75  39 /  10   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  55  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  75  48  73  40 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  50  78  42 /  10   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  87  55  83  49 /  10  10   0   0
Chama...........................  72  44  62  32 /   5  30  60   0
Los Alamos......................  74  53  71  44 /   0   0  20   5
Pecos...........................  75  47  73  42 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  74  47  69  37 /   0   0  40   5
Red River.......................  65  41  60  32 /   0   0  30   5
Angel Fire......................  70  36  65  30 /   0   0  20   0
Taos............................  77  46  73  36 /   0   0  20   0
Mora............................  74  44  69  38 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  82  52  78  43 /   0   0  10   5
Santa Fe........................  76  51  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  50  78  43 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  59  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  59  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  57  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  58  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  55  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  56  83  48 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  55  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  56  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  55  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  81  56  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  57  83  49 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  57  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  52  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  54  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  48  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  51  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  49  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  50  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  80  48  75  40 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  82  49  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  76  47  73  43 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  84  56  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  80  52  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  87  56  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  89  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  86  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  89  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  84  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  80  50  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion