Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS63 KPAH 132244
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure keeps the bulk of the new week dry and
  seasonally mild.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances continue to increase for the
  weekend marking the start of a more unsettled period of
  weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
As advertised things appear little changed from 24 hours ago
with deep troughing over the east coast, ridging here at home,
and general deep troughiness over the west. Warm and dry
conditions with highs around 80 and mild nights can continue to
be expected through Thursday before the current omega-block
pattern begins to wear down.
By Friday into Saturday a well-advertised trough approaches from
the west shifting low level flow to the southwest. Strong
moisture return accompanies this from the western Gulf coast and
dewpoints work into the 63-67 degree range for the first time in
a bit. 850mb flow continues to trend slowly upward in
deterministic guidance with 12z suite GFS/ECMWF showing 40-45kt
wind a little closer to the axis of better instability and
moisture than what it has shown over the last few days. SPC has
drawn up part of the area in the Day 6 severe weather outlook
and that seems reasonable. Instability may end up being too
meager given convective coverage and shortwave timing but we
will continue to monitor. The synoptic picture for now suggests
at least the possibility of multiple rounds of precip with PWAT
values around 1.5 to 1.7 so we will keep an eye on heavy rain
potential as well. There is then building consensus we stay in
an amplified and progressive upper level pattern with another
potentially sharper upper trough working in by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the region
tonight. Shallow ground fog is possible again Tuesday morning,
especially at KCGI. There may be enough intermittent light
wind, limiting reductions to MVFR/IFR as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten. If the boundary layer can completely
decouple, more impactful fog would be possible again with mostly
clear skies. Winds on Tuesday will be NE between 6-8 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion