Crackville Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS64 KLCH 140526
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture
  returning throughout Thursday as onshore flow becomes
  reestablished
- The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday as an upper
  trough and cold front approach from the west. For now, rain
  chances remain rather low, and will largely depend on moisture
  return through the late week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Surface high pressure extends from Canada to the Gulf Coast, while
aloft large high pressure ridge dominates the NW Gulf Coast
extending from Mexico to the Ohio River Valley. 00Z sounding at LCH
shows a very dry airmass throughout the column, with a PWAT of
0.98" which is just above the 25th percentile according to SPC
climo. Surface and upper level high pressure will continue to
dominate the forecast area into Thursday, keeping dry conditions in
place through the short term.
While dry conditions prevail, temperatures will run above average
through the next several days with highs in the upper 80s.
Overnight, lows will be near normal through the next few nights, in
the upper 50s/low 60s, with overnight lows increasing into the mid
60s/low 70s Thurs night/Fri morning as moisture starts to return.
Until then, the dry airmass overhead and the amplifying drought
conditions across much of the CWA will again result in an elevated
risk for wildfires today and tomorrow. Thankfully, Thurs does look
to bring a transition towards a wetter pattern so conditions will
begin to improve through the end of the week in regards to fire
danger.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
After a somewhat slow start to moisture return on Thurs, things
begin to pick up on Fri as slug of tropical moisture moves inland
off the Gulf, with PWATs surging towards the 90th percentile. Aloft,
a SWrly flow will become established late Thurs into Fri as upper
ridging shifts towards the East Coast and troughing takes shape over
the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure shifts east as well,
allowing onshore flow to become established across the CWA. Small
rain chances return to the forecast throughout the day Friday,
particularly across SE TX and parts of adjacent SW LA. Away from
convection, a bit more cloud cover and elevated dewpoints will hold
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Moving into the weekend, upper level troughing shifts across the
Plains and towards the Midwest Sat into Sun, while an associated
cold front sweeps across the Plains and eventually through the
forecast area from Sat through Sun. On Sat, rain chances increase
further area-wide as moisture continues to pool overhead and upper
level support increases. We could eventually see an severe weather
outlook with this system over the coming days, depending on where
the best support sets up. For now it looks to be more to our north
(where a D6 Slight Risk is outlined by SPC), but this will be
something to watch over the coming days. Rain chances remain
elevated into Sunday until the passage of the cold front which is
expected to occur Sun afternoon/evening. Unfortunately, this front
looks to be fairly similar to the last, bringing just a small shot
of dry air and no real cool down.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Clear skies and light mainly NE winds will continue throughout the
forecast period. No issues or deviations from VFR are anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
NE to E winds around 5-12 kts will continue into Thursday, along
with seas around 1-3 feet. Winds shift more east to southeast
throughout Thursday while increasing slightly, with a SE to S
flow then prevailing into Saturday until the passage of the next
front. Rain chances will be below 10% into Thurs, increasing Thurs
PM through Sun as moisture pools overhead and support for
convection increases.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Min RH values in the 25-35% range are again expected today and
tomorrow, resulting in elevated fire danger. Wind will be rather
light and mainly out of the NE through this period. Thurs, winds
become SErly and moisture begins to return quickly as we head
towards the weekend. Moisture pools overhead Fri into Sat,
with min RH values surging into the 50-70% range. Rain chances
ramp up Fri through Sun as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  88  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  88  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  89  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion