Cranberry, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS62 KGSP 021044
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure ridging down from the northeast will control our
weather through the end of the week, bringing cooler than normal
temperatures for today and Friday.  As the center of high pressure
moves offshore, temperatures return to near normal for the weekend.
Moisture increases Sunday through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:35 AM Thursday: Over the past few hrs, lower-lvl moisture
has moved in under a weak subsidence inversion over the northern NC
mtns and foothills. This moisture combined with weak ELY upslope
flow has produced multiple decks of stratocu along the Blue Ridge
that has spread over most of our NC foothills. It has also spread
southward into northern Greenville and Spartanburg Counties, but
will likely sct the further south it spreads. Winds have weakened
across our area with most sites currently reporting 5 kts or less.
Lows should bottom-out near normal for most of our CWA with values
a few degrees below normal over our NC Piedmont zones.
Otherwise, a quiet near-term is expected across the region as upper
trofing slides offshore and an upstream ridge over the Mississippi
Valley shifts east and over the Appalachians. Broad surface high
pressure will migrate south and over New England today which will
bring a reinforcing plume of cooler air into the area this morning.
The resulting drop in 850 mb temperatures will help keep highs in
the low to mid 70s across most of our lower terrain this afternoon.
15 to 20 kts of flow within the mixed boundary layer will support
another round of intermittent gusty winds this afternoon/evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 AM Thursday: The first half of the weekend still
looks like it will be dominated by a dry cold air damming wedge,
with a weakening parent sfc high migrating slowly southwest along
the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Nothing controversial here, just more
of the same, with some overnight/morning clouds that mix out to
mostly sunny afternoons, and temperatures that stay within a few
degrees of normal. Friday might be on the cool side of normal,
Saturday might be on the warm side. Might have a little bit more
cloudiness on Saturday afternoon compared to Friday afternoon,
but the weather still looks choice. Model guidance agrees that
moisture return should hold off until at least Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1231 AM Thursday: Guidance continues to show the mid/upper
anticyclone becoming more pronounced off the NC coast by Sunday, and
thus able to more productively transport moisture from the Atlantic
on an improving low level E/SE flow. Might take a little while
for meaningful precip to develop, but low level isentropic lift
starts up Sunday afternoon and continues off and on through Monday
night. Some weak vorticity advection might also contribute. Either
way, clouds will be on the increase for the back half of the
weekend and into early next week, and precip chances are looking
like a better bet across the southeast upslope zones. Nothing too
outrageous. QPF very minimal. But, again, if the moisture return
and isentropic lift work out, our temp forecast is probably too
warm by a category or two for Sunday and Monday. For now, the model
blend keeps us right around the warm side of normal. The sfc ridge
hangs on through Tuesday and we lose our Atlantic moisture feed as
the upper anticyclone collapses and flattens out, leaving us under
zonal flow, so there would be a bit of a tail-off in precip probs
and slightly warmer temps. Guidance suggests that we will be in
the middle of a pattern change by then, with a strong short wave
moving east across Ontario and Quebec Wednesday and Thursday. The
most recent model runs don`t look as amplified and struggle to
agree on the timing of a front that would be driven down from the
NW and into our area late Wednesday or early Thursday. Confidence
is low as to which period might have the higher chances of rain,
so the chances get smeared over Wednesday and Wednesday night,
then taper off Thursday. Temps should drop back below normal after
the front finally moves through.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry VFR conditions thru the 12z taf
period. The only exception may be at KAVL, where lower-lvl moisture
has moved in under a weak subsidence inversion over the NC mtns and
foothills. This moisture combined with ELY upslope flow has produced
decks of low-end VFR and MVFR stratocu along the Blue Ridge that was
bkn over KAVL earlier this morning. It appears that the MVFR cigs will
remain sct for the rest of the morning over KAVL, so I removed the
TEMPO restriction I had earlier. Patchy mountain valley fog has also
developed over the favored valleys, but it is not expected to spread
over KAVL this morning. Otherwise, we can expect mostly clear skies
by the afternoon with a few high cirrus later in the day/evening.
Outside of the mtns, winds will remain NELY to ENELY thru the taf
period with more low-end gusts of 15 to 20 kts likely this aftn.
At KAVL, winds will remain light thru the morning and then pick
up marginally from the SE by the afternoon. They will likely go
calm again tomorrow morning with a decent chance for visby/cig
restrictions.
Outlook: Dry high pressure is expected to remain over the region
into the weekend. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with the excep-
tion of patchy morning fog and low stratus in the mtn valleys each
day. Scattered showers may return late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion