Cravat, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS63 KLSX 060708
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some patchy fog is possible in northeast and central Missouri
  early this morning, but is not likely to be widespread.
- Light rain will end near sunrise, and dry conditions are likely
  to follow for most, if not all of the next week.
- After mild and pleasant conditions this weekend, above normal
  temperatures are expected Wednesday onward, though not likely
  hot or humid enough to cause noteworthy impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
In the immediate term, the primary forecast concern continues to be
the continuation of very light rain across parts of southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois, followed by perhaps a brief window
for patchy fog in a few places across central and northeast Missouri
by sunrise. However, neither of these is expected to be particularly
impactful.
As of 1:30 am, some very light rain continues to be observed across
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. While radar returns have
been persistent in this area, rainfall rates remain very light, with
total amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch over the last 24
hours. While this rain has battled dry low level air all day, just
enough rain has managed to make it to the surface to wet the ground
in a few spots, and this may persist for another few hours before
diminishing near sunrise. From there onward, dry conditions are
expected to prevail for at least the next week in most areas.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery reveals that clouds are clearing
abruptly across northeast and central Missouri, with temperatures
dropping quickly as the clouds dissipate. This may allow for some
patchy fog to develop before sunrise, although none has thus far
been observed in these areas. At this point, the window for fog
development appears to be shrinking, particularly in central
Missouri where clouds and a 10 degree dewpoint depression persist.
Still, given the timing of the cloud shield, there is still just
enough time to squeak out an hour or two of fog in a few spots near
sunrise. We don`t expect this to be widespread, but you may see a
few areas of reduced visibility if you are out and about in these
areas early this morning.
For the remainder of the weekend, surface high pressure will settle
into the area behind the advancing cold front, although we may hold
onto a firmer pressure gradient today that cold produce some modest
westerly breezes this afternoon. However, the main story will be
that of comfortable temperatures in the 70s both today and tomorrow,
with low humidity and mostly clear skies. Given the expected pattern
and narrow ensemble temperature spreads, confidence is quite high
that this weekend will feature very pleasant weather with little in
the way of hazards, aside from perhaps some patchy morning steam fog
along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.
BRC
&&
.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Behind today`s cold front, a large surface high will steadily build
into the region and remain in the area through the weekend and into
early next week. This will lead to a rather non-descript period
featuring mild temperatures and minimal chances for precipitation.
From Saturday through Monday, confidence is quite high that we will
see afternoon temperatures topping out in the mid 70s to near 80
degrees, with a slight upward turn as early as Monday. This is
roughly 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages for early September,
and these comfortable temperatures will also be accompanied by low
humidity. In other words, it should be a great weekend to head
outside.
Over the course of the work week, mid and long range ensemble
guidance continues to project that an upper level ridge will
steadily build and southerly flow will resume across the central
Plains. Both of these factors will almost certainly lead to a steady
warming trend across our area, in spite of the fact that the the
axis of the upper ridge will likely remain to our west throughout
the forecast period. While confidence is high that a warming trend
is on the way, there remains some uncertainty regarding both how
quickly we will warm up and the upper-end potential, primarily due
to continued variance in the upper flow pattern evolution among
ensemble members. In spite of this, NBM guidance suggests that there
is a greater than 50% chance that we will climb back above normal
(roughly 85 degrees) by Wednesday, increasing to 70+% by the end of
the work week, and maximum temperature forecast spreads have shrunk
to 5 degrees or less throughout this period.
Meanwhile, precipitation chances remain rather low throughout the
extended period. We do see a very slight increase in precipitation-
producing members late Tuesday through the end of the week as more
moisture-rich southerly flow inches eastward, but these solutions
remain firmly in the minority. As such, our extended stretch of
mostly dry weather appears much more likely than not to continue for
the next week.
BRC
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Unimpactful light rain will continue through tonight for portions
of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. In central Missouri,
residual rain paired with clear skies, light winds, and cool
temperatures should result in patchy radiational and steam fog.
Therefore, I`ve added MVFR vsbys at KCOU and MVFR to IFR at KJEF
given it`s received more rain and is susceptible to steam fog.
Further east, clouds are forecast to clear quickly enough for
patchy MVFR to IFR steam fog to develop as far east at KSUS. Any
fog that does develop will burn off quickly after sunrise. Aside
from that, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
Jaja
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion