Creston, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS65 KCYS 202335
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions and mountain precipitation are expected this
  weekend, but overall conditions should be fair with a slight
  warming trend expected.
- A cold front and weather disturbance will bring cooler and
  wetter weather for Monday and Tuesday, before a ridge aloft
  produces drier and warmer weather for Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered to broken cloud cover and a few echoes are noted on
radar as of this afternoon. Dynamic parameters remain
unimpressive however, with MUCAPE almost non-existent outside of
the Nebraska Panhandle. The shortwave producing this should
continue to fuel the potential for a few more isolated showers
and very weak storms through this evening, mainly across the
high terrain and adjacent plains as orographic features will be
the primary lift mechanism, with activity waning as the sun
sets.
Into Sunday, another shortwave and further moisture feed should
produce another round of precipitation chances, primarily across
the high terrain and adjacent plains once again, but this time
precipitation probabilities should be a little higher thanks to
a bit more support in the form of slightly more instability and
meager wind shear. Still, nothing indicates potent activity, and
we should once again see primarily rainfall with a few embedded
thunderstorms in a scattered nature. Meanwhile an approaching
Pacific trough will help to tighten the pressure gradient, and
between the shortwaves and this incoming system, we should see
breezy winds from today continuing through overnight Sunday into
Monday, though 700mb winds are only expected to max around 35
knots, don`t expect our usual high wind warning level criteria -
at least yet.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Monday...A shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front will
move into our forecast area, producing a cooler day. With dynamics
and diffluent flow aloft, as well as adequate low and mid level
moisture, we expect to see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...The shortwave trough aloft moves across our counties,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with cooler
temperatures due to cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
Wednesday...A warming and drying trend begins as a high amplitude
ridge aloft builds across Utah and western Wyoming.
Thursday...Dry weather continues with a warming trend as the ridge
aloft transitions over eastern Wyoming.
Friday...Mild and dry weather continues as the ridge aloft moves
eastward over the western high plains and southerly flow aloft
develops over our counties.
Saturday...Although a shortwave trough aloft moves into western
Colorado, most clouds and precipitation associated with the trough
will remain to the south of our counties. 700 mb temperatures
suggest little change in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Mid to high level clouds are moving across the CWA, with a few
isolated showers and storms along with clearing to the west
northwest. Any storm activity this afternoon may produce gusty
and erratic winds of up to 25 knots, but in general winds will
remain light in the 5 to 15 knot range through Sunday morning.
With all this said, VFR conditions will continue for all terminals
into Sunday morning, outside those that may be impacted briefly
with showers and storms such as KLAR and KSNY. Some clearing
may occur overnight, but a return of moisture for Sunday will
once again increase the threat of precipitation chances at the
tail end of this TAF period.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RZ

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion