Cross Hill, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS62 KGSP 202308
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
708 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in the
mountains each day through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain at or
slightly above normal for this time of year. Unsettled weather and
cooler temperatures develop in the second half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EDT Saturday: Early convective initiation occurred,
more or less as expected, across the ridges, and now even over
the South Mtns. This has resulted in better coverage of storms
earlier than expected, and so the precip probs have been bumped
up. The blend remains undercooked across the fcst area, or so it
would seem based on the coverage at midday. The environment across
most of the fcst area would be supportive of more storms, what with
sfc-based CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, but with mlCAPE half that, so it
doesn`t seem like there would be too much to discourage it. Precip
chances were bumped up across northeast Georgia and Upstate SC,
but only to slight chance yet. Don`t be too surprised if precip
chances are still...deficient. Slow moving storms favor heavy rain
as the greatest threat, similar to yesterday, but there`s just
enough dCAPE, especially east of the mtns, to not rule out some
strong wind gusts. The CAMs have this activity dying off around
sunset. As for temps, no changes.
The remnants of a baggy mid-level trof get pushed out to the east by
this evening, then 500mb height rises overnight partly in response
to the trof digging well to our west over the Plains. This more or
less holds weak high pressure across the region, so it makes sense
to expect another round of mtn valley fog. No air mass change,
either, so low temps will once again be around a category above
normal.
As for Sunday, the trend is toward a more suppressed day compared to
today, as some mid-level DPVA moves overhead and some less-unstable
air returns from the high to the northeast. The CAMs generally
develop precip only over the higher terrain, which seems reasonable
given a lack of upper support and poor buoyancy. Precip chances
will be kept there. Temps should be warm once again with highs
still running about ten degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sat: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure will
be in place across the region for the early part of the week. High
temperatures a few degrees above normal each day combined with
sufficient low level moisture will lead to enough instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Sat: A mid level trof will develop across the central
part of the nation during the middle of the week. This will pump up
the ridge over this area on Wednesday leading to the warmest day of
the week, around 3-7 degrees above normal. The trof will slowly
slide east through the latter part of the week, leading to increased
shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday. Highs will be
near normal on Thursday and below normal on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals
through the TAF period. Afternoon convection has rapidly dissipated
early this evening with a rather quiet overnight period expected.
The only focus will be the potential for another round of mountain
valley fog with respective visibility and ceiling restrictions at
KAVL. Fog should dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise with
a return to VFR conditions thereafter. Elsewhere, patchy fog cannot
be ruled out at any given location that saw rainfall today.
Coverage of convection is expected to be lower Sunday afternoon and
predominately confined to the mountains, especially along the
Tennessee border. Some activity may try to make a run at KAVL late
in the forecast period, but confidence is too low to warrant mention
at this time.
Outlook: Dry weather returns to start the week. Rain chances may
return Tuesday thru midweek. Fog and stratus possible each morning
in the mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...TW

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion